976
FXUS64 KEWX 020800
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
300 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The small mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) that generated some
severe wind gusts that advanced into Edwards and Val Verde county
has weakened. However, there has been some rejuvenated activity in
association with the decaying complex. This and it`s outflow could
continue to help generate some rain showers and primarily weak
convection this morning as activity advances towards the east and
southeast. Activity should eventually dissipate. We`ll then turn
some attention to the middle to upper Texas coast and into the
coastal plains as several HREF CAM members try to develop possible
convection within this area and send an outflow boundary northward
into within portions of our CWA. Inserted a low end (~20 percent)
chance for rain and storms across our eastern and northern most
counties, including Travis and Williamson Counties, with this
boundary. Any activity should wane heading into and through this
evening. This evening could also see a very low end chance (~10
percent) for a cell to sneak once again into Val Verde county but
latest CAMs have backed off a bit regarding this solution. If a
storm is able to enter, it may be strong to severe with damaging
winds and large hail as the primary hazards. SPC had maintained a
level 1 to 2 risk for severe weather on latest Day 1 convective
outlook across Val Verde county. Monday is forecast to stay rain
free during the majority of the daytime hours but we`ll monitor
towards and west of the Rio Grande for any signs of developing
cumulus and convection with approach toward and after sunset.

Above average temperatures persist while the airmass stays quite
humid as well with the southeasterly low-level winds. Afternoon
highs will top out in the low to mid 90s with primarily partly
cloudy skies both today and again on Monday. The only exception
occurs toward the Rio Grande where slightly drier air allows
temperatures to top out in the upper 90s and above 100 degrees
across those locations. Monday afternoon could see the peak heat
indices briefly exceed 110 degrees in portions of the Rio Grande
plains. Given the smallish geographic region and the values only
briefly exceeding thresholds, Monday afternoon will likely trend
more towards a Special Weather Statement (SPS) type day rather
than the need for a Heat Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

There is a slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms with a
potential to be strong to severe Monday evening, though most models
show nothing.

Mid level ridging begins to build over our area on Tuesday. The
exception being the ECMWF that brings an impulse over our area
resulting in one more day of slight shower and thunderstorm chances.
For now, will favor the consensus and leave mention out. All models
show mid level ridging Wednesday through Friday, then weak westerly
flow intrudes next weekend. Although temperatures become hotter,
there remains some disagreement on how much dewpoints mix with
daytime heating, as well, how much soil moisture dries. This in turn
would impact temperatures. GFS is warmer since it mixes dewpoints
lower, especially across western areas while the ECMWF is not as hot
with less mixing of dewpoints with the CMC in between. Areas with
the recent heaviest rains (Hill Country, Central Texas to along and
east of I-35) have the highest soil moisture and will be slowest to
mix dewpoints. Taking all this into account, parts of our area will
likely reach Heat Advisory levels mid to late week as have trended
temperatures toward the NBM while going lower with dewpoints out west.
With subsidence underneath the ridge, no convection is expected.
However, with the high heat and possibly a dryline intrusion, cannot
rule out a shower or thunderstorm each late afternoon into early
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A lone severe thunderstorm is traveling from Val Verde into Edwards
county. This storm looks to miss KDRT but kept tempo -TSRA at the
start of the period in case. The storm could throw out outflow and
this could induce showers or weak convection early Monday morning
across portions of South-Central Texas. Have added a period of VCSH
to the San Antonio sites (KSAT and KSSF) for the possibility. The
ceilings will lower into MVFR range at all sites late overnight
through portions of Sunday morning. The conditions should then
improve back towards VFR levels into Sunday afternoon. VFR levels
maintain through the evening before MVFR ceilings the return at the
30 hr TAF sites (KAUS and KSAT) starting at 06Z Monday. Light to
moderate east to southeasterly breezes prevail through the period.
Winds during Sunday afternoon could gust into the 20 to 25 knot
range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  77  94  77 /  20  10  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  76  93  76 /  20  10  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  77  95  76 /  10  10  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            89  75  91  74 /  20  20  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  81 101  80 /  10  10  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  75  92  76 /  20  10  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             96  78  96  76 /  10  10  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  76  95  76 /  10  10  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  77  92  78 /  20   0  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  78  95  77 /  10  10  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           97  79  97  78 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...04
Aviation...Brady