Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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409 FXUS64 KEWX 130647 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 147 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level shortwave trough moving across southeast TX and generating isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from our Coastal Plains to the Hill Country. Convection will likely continue through the afternoon while the upper shortwave moves away from the region. Tonight the subtropical ridge will build over TX from the west. This will bring an end to the unsettled pattern we`ve been experiencing over the last few days. Dry weather will settle over the region for tonight through Thursday night. Low temperatures tonight and thursday night will be about the same as we`ve had during the early part of the week. Highs Thursday will be warmer with less cloud cover and more sunshine. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Near to slightly above normal temperatures can be expected through the first half of the long term period. Lower to middle 90s will be most common over the Hill Country and I-35 corridor on Friday, with highs climbing into the mid to upper 90s this weekend in the same areas. Elsewhere, expect highs in the mid to upper 90s outside of the Rio Grande Plains where it will continue to top out in the 100- 105 range through the weekend. Our rain chances will remain cut off this weekend as weak ridging sets up shop over the region, but it will be short-lived as it migrates eastward and settles over the southeastern CONUS early next week. This should open the door for slightly cooler afternoons, but mornings will be downright muggy as surface moisture return increases as an area of disturbed weather develops over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. As of this writing, NHC gives it a low chance (30%) of developing in the next 7 days, with the primary impact from the system likely being heavy rainfall. The latest 8-14 U.S. Hazards Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center places the eastern half of our CWA within a Slight Risk for heavy precip, while the Coastal Plains are within a Moderate Risk for heavy precip (greater than 4 in 10 chance of seeing heavy rains that could result in flooding) June 20-23. As far as medium range guidance goes, both the GFS and ECMWF develop a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche late this weekend into early next week, with the ECMWF on board with the best chance of tropical development. The latest 12Z members are bullish on this system developing into a weak tropical storm and moving inland over northern Mexico. If this were to occur, we could reap the benefits over the Rio Grande Plains and Coastal Plains in terms of beneficial rainfall. For now, we will continue to monitor trends, and as always, stick to reliable sources of information on the tropics like the National Hurricane Center. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Some low cloud development is noted on satellite imagery this morning, but is rather patchy in coverage. We did opt to include some TEMPO groups for MVFR cigs for a few hours around sunrise given satellite trends and recent model guidance. We may have to start MVFR cigs a little earlier pending satellite and observational trends. Out west at DRT, we kept the forecast VFR, but did add a mention of SCT low clouds this morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 95 75 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 95 73 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 92 73 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 103 81 103 81 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 92 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 96 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 94 72 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 95 76 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 96 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...04 Aviation...Platt