189
FXUS64 KEWX 170523
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1223 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

An omega block pattern will remain in place from the short term
period and beyond with the mid-level ridging portion of this block
pattern remaining settled atop the state of Texas. Above average
temperatures continue as a result with perhaps more daily record high
temperatures being approached. See the climate section below for
more details. While the rain chances remain very limited, a residual
but decaying surface boundary that extends from the Hill Country
eastward into portions of the Coastal Plains may be able to kick off
a few stray showers both this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.
I have elected to add a 10 percent mention for a rain shower in the
most favored corridor. Southern Maverick into Dimmit County could
also see the opportunity for a spotty shower this afternoon in
association with a tongue of higher residual moisture that remains
wedged up along the Rio Grande after the effects from the leftover
mid-level energy and moisture from recent Tropical Storm Ileana in
the Eastern Pacific. The moisture levels lower back towards normal
along the Rio Grande into Tuesday and should keep rain chances out of
the forecast there. Otherwise, a light flow maintains through the
period under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Mid-level ridging will start to overtake South Central Texas by mid
to late week, setting the stage for continued hot and dry conditions.
Highs each day will routinely climb into the mid to upper 90s along
with mornings in the 70s through Saturday. A trough over the western
CONUS will begin moving eastward this weekend, approaching the Texas
Panhandle by late Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms look to stay
north of our area with this storm system, but there is an off chance
that is could push a surface cold front into the Hill Country as soon
as next Sunday or Monday. This could help to flatten the ridging in
place and bring slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some
increased rain chances to our region by early next week. For now,
keep cranking that A.C.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR flying conditions prevail overnight through Tuesday night. The
exception could be a brief period of MVFR CIGs at KDRT early in the
morning. Better chances for MVFR CIGs return early Wednesday morning.
Light winds at 7 KTs or less, except 10 to 15 KTs at KDRT during the
day on Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Record High Temperatures

                     Sep 17

Austin Bergstrom....99 (2005*)
Austin Camp Mabry...99 (2021)
Del Rio............103 (2021)
San Antonio.........98 (1997)

* denotes previous years

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  97  75  98 /   0  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  98  76  98 /   0  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            72  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  97  79  98 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  95  75  96 /   0  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  96  74  97 /   0  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  95  74  96 /   0  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  97  77  96 /   0  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  98  78  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...17
Aviation...04