Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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065 FXUS64 KEWX 040920 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 420 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 416 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Added a region of 15 PoPs from 09 UTC through about 12 UTC this morning across eastern portions of our coastal plain counties as a band of convection has developed south of Victoria and is lifting towards the north-northeast. Activity may be strong and capable of producing some gusty winds and small hail. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Dangerous heat establishes across South-Central Texas during the short term period as 500 mb heights slowly increase in response to the building upper level ridging from northern Mexico through the Desert Southwest. Additionally, the storm track with regards to any disturbances and convective complexes should primarily concentrate southeastward from the TX/OK panhandles to near the Red River and into Louisiana. This should keep rain chances minimal locally. The only fly in the ointment could be any stronger outflow/cold pools advancing southward away from that storm track corridor. While of very low confidence, as seen over the past week or so regarding the CAM guidance, there are a couple of HREF members showing outflow reaching our region sometime into and/or on Wednesday. This would require some adjustments of the temperatures and rain chances into or through Wednesday, if that scenario plays out. The afternoon highs both today and Wednesday are forecast to range from the mid to upper 90s into the 100 to 108 degree range in our western most counties. Daily record highs will be possible today across San Antonio and is more likely at Del Rio. NBM indicates nearly a 50% chance of exceeding the record at KSAT while KDRT is nearly 85% chance of completing this same feat. KDRT also has a chance of breaking the daily record on Wednesday despite a higher record value by 3 degrees. The heat indices will trend even higher as surface dew points through the afternoon likely range from the mid to upper 60s to the mid 70s across the region. Heat indices outside from the Hill Country will peak in the 108 to 113 degree range. This will prompt a Heat Advisory across much of the region between 1 to 8 PM CDT. Given at least still a low possibility of outflow entering the region into/during Wednesday, I`ll elect to maintain issuing the heat headlines one day at a time. Please continue to practice and promote the heat precautions listed down below. Heat Precautions: Never leave people and/or pets alone within a closed car, stay hydrated with plenty of water, wear loose-fitting and light colored clothing, and take frequent breaks within the shade and air conditioning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A cluster of showers and thunderstorms passing northeast of our area will send a boundary south into our area late Wednesday per numerous CAMS. This may provide forcing for a few showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Mid level ridging drifts over our area on Thursday through Sunday. Subsidence underneath the ridge and the surface boundary dissipating makes for increasing convective inhibition, and in turn no rain chances. Heat indices remain elevated on Thursday for possibly one more day of Heat Advisories during the current heat wave. Then, dewpoints mix a little more efficiently on Friday through Sunday keeping heat indices lower and below criteria. All long range models now bring a "cold" front into our area on Monday due to deepening upper level trough over the eastern states. This is a new development. Frontal passages are a lot less common in early June. For now, will trend toward the NBM and its slight chance POPs. If model trends show consistency, later forecasts may have to lower temperatures, possibly to near or perhaps slightly below normal for early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 MVFR ceilings prevail overnight through this morning across the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). KDRT remains VFR but some scattered low clouds could arrive around or just after sunrise but should quickly clear out by the afternoon. VFR conditions return to all terminals by 16 UTC. Low clouds return and ceilings lower to MVFR levels again late tonight into Wednesday for the 30 hr TAF sites (KAUS and KSAT). Light to moderate east-southeast to south- southeasterly breezes continue. Gusts occasionally trend around or above 20 knots at the I-35 terminals from late this afternoon through this evening. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 TUE WED THU FRI 06/04 06/05 06/06 06/07 ------------------------------------------------ AUS 99/2011* 100/2018 103/2011 100/2022 ATT 99/2008 101/2011 103/2022* 103/2022 SAT 100/1916 102/2022 104/2022 104/2022 DRT 104/2013* 107/2022* 110/2022 108/1974 * TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 97 78 95 76 / 10 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 77 94 74 / 10 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 77 97 74 / 10 10 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 95 75 93 74 / 10 10 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 106 81 108 81 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 95 76 93 74 / 10 10 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 101 77 99 75 / 10 10 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 98 76 95 73 / 10 10 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 95 78 94 75 / 10 10 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 100 78 97 75 / 10 10 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 101 79 99 77 / 10 10 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio- Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Maverick-Medina-Travis- Uvalde-Williamson-Wilson-Zavala. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...04 Aviation...Brady