Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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174 FXUS64 KEWX 280312 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1012 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 The showers and thunderstorms noted earlier well south of Eagle Pass continue to move to the southeast away from our area. We have let Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336 for the remaining counties expire. Expect no convective development overnight due to lack of forcing. CAMS continue to show showers and thunderstorms developing Tuesday afternoon, then likely forming into one or more clusters and moving across our area Tuesday evening into night. Forecast soundings show enhanced potential for strong to severe storms and locally heavy rains. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and minor flooding are the main threats. && .UPDATE... Issued at 855 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Showers and thunderstorms continue near the Rio Grande well to the south of Eagle Pass. Have kept Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336 going there as some development into Dimmit, Maverick, and Zavala counties is possible in the next hour or so. Elsewhere, activity has rapidly waned with loss of heating due to sunset. With no additional forcing expected, have cancelled the Watch early, removed thunder mention, and reduced or removed POPs. Although heat index values remain elevated in a few spots, have allowed all heat products to expire on schedule. Those few spots will fall below 108 by Midnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Latest visible satellite images are showing a scattered to broken low level cloud deck across the coastal plains while the rest of South Central Texas enjoys mostly sunny skies. There are a few high clouds arriving from the west associated with elevated moisture and from the top of the storms that are already ongoing across the Serranias del Burro Mountains. This activity out west may take several hours to make it into parts of the Rio Grande later this afternoon and early evening. In the meantime, temperatures continue to climb into the 90s and ranging from 100 to 101 degrees along the Rio Grande as of 130 PM. A Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning continues in effect for most of South Central Texas through 8 PM this evening. Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values of 110 to 114 are forecast for the I-35 corridor and from 114 to 117 across the coastal plains through early this evening. Circling back to the storms mentioned above, some of them could make into the Rio Grande later this afternoon and early evening as they develop ahead of the dry-line. Another area of convective initiation is expected ahead of a cold front over central Texas. Some of these storms could be developing over parts of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country late this afternoon through this evening. If they do manage to develop, the main threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storm activity should be over by midnight tonight. Much cooler temperatures are forecast for Tuesday as clouds linger around for most of the day and there are better chances for showers and storms. Tuesday`s highs are forecast to range from the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor to upper 90s and up to 101 for the coastal plains and along the Rio Grande. Tuesday`s weather setup brings the potential for strong to severe storms across most areas of South Central Texas as storms develop ahead of the dry-line and a quasi-stationary frontal boundary over central Texas. It is possible that a linear MCS develops over the San Angelo CWA and then pushes into the Rio Grande/southern Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and parts of the I-35 corridor late afternoon continuing into the evening. The main threats are likely to be damaging wind gusts of 60 mph and greater and large to very hail. The storm system weakens as it moves into the coastal plains and then over the middle Texas coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 The beginning of the long term period will see temperatures closer to normal values along with daily low to medium chances for thunderstorms. The thunderstorm chances can be largely attributed to a stationary front across the northern portion of the state through the remainder of the work week and occasional upper level disturbances riding over the ridge which will remain centered over Mexico. While this particular pattern results in daily chances for rain, the exact locations where the rain will fall remain uncertain due to the subtle and fairly broad forcing. Regardless, daily isolated to scattered convection will help keep temperatures at bay through the week due to increased cloud cover and rain cooled air. Guidance shows a slight northward shift of the higher upper level heights over the coming weekend, which will likely bring a slight warming trend and drier conditions heading into the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 SHRA/TSRA over the Hill Country to along the Rio Grande will move east this evening and dissipate later this evening. Have VCTS at the sites until 03Z. Expect redevelopment Tuesday afternoon into evening and have introduced PROB30s for KDRT at 28/21Z and for KSAT/KAUS at 29/00Z. Otherwise, VFR skies turn MVFR overnight, then mix to VFR by midday Tuesday. However, expect some reductions to VSBY, perhaps CIGs in SHRA/TSRA. Southeasterly winds gradually decrease this evening, then become breezy on Tuesday. There could be strong wind gusts near/in SHRA/TSRA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 94 72 88 / 20 20 50 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 94 71 89 / 20 20 50 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 97 73 92 / 20 20 50 40 Burnet Muni Airport 73 90 70 85 / 20 30 60 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 101 77 98 / 20 40 40 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 91 70 85 / 20 30 60 50 Hondo Muni Airport 75 97 71 93 / 20 20 50 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 95 72 91 / 20 20 50 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 94 73 88 / 20 20 30 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 96 73 92 / 20 20 50 30 Stinson Muni Airport 77 97 74 93 / 20 20 40 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...05 Aviation...04