Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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031 FXUS64 KEWX 111840 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 140 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Latest regional radar imagery shows a line of storms developing along an outflow boundary extending southward from the tail end of a morning complex of storms. The Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau will be first in line for some strong to severe storms, with SPC painting a Level 1-2 out of 5 risk for the entire CWA this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind looks to be the primary hazard with some large hail also possible given the instability present. However, with a rather warm and moist atmospheric profile, the concern for hail is a bit lower than recent events. A 500mb shortwave at the base of a passing upper level low to our north will be the primary forcing mechanism along with the rich boundary layer moisture and elevated instability. Expect storms to push through from northwest to southeast and perhaps even turn more southerly than usual as the shortwave disturbance swings through our region. Yet another weak shortwave may push through from north to south on Wednesday on the back side of the departing upper low, which may support additional showers and storms, but at this time, severe weather does not look to be a threat for our region. Temperatures are expected to remain near the status quo, if not slightly cooler outside of the Rio Grande Plains. Highs should top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s for most, with lower 100s along the Rio Grande. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The subtropical ridge will build back across TX Thursday. Dry weather will return, and a warming trend will begin. Models continue to show temperatures a little cooler over the latter part of the week. Highs will mostly be in the 90s with triple digits confined to the Rio Grande region and southern I-35 Corridor. Afternoon dewpoint temperatures will remain mainly steady in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the weekend keeping heat indices below advisory criteria. Monday a midlevel trough will approach the TX coast from the Gulf and could produce some showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains Monday and Tuesday afternoons. There will also be increase in dewpoint temperatures raising heat index values. We could see heat advisory levels across the Coastal Plains and southern I-35 Corridor Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A bit of a tricky forecast this package as storms may impact AUS, SAT, and SSF, with confidence highest at AUS. Have opted for a TEMPO group at AUS and PROB30s at SAT and SSF for -TSRA. Winds should remain mostly light and variable today but may shift to a slightly more easterly component by early evening. DRT should remain more easterly to southeasterly through the period with VFR ceilings. MVFR CIGs look like a good bet at AUS, but the possibility of some patchy fog is not out of the question, so have hedged towards 5SM vis at AUS and will reevaluate at the amendments and 00Z TAFS. With regard to timing, storms should mainly move through between 00-06Z, but we could see some development before that at AUS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 91 74 95 / 40 30 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 91 73 93 / 40 20 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 93 74 96 / 30 20 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 71 87 73 92 / 40 30 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 101 81 103 / 20 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 88 72 92 / 30 30 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 93 74 97 / 30 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 90 73 94 / 40 20 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 89 74 93 / 30 30 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 92 76 96 / 40 20 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 93 77 97 / 40 20 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...MMM Long-Term...05 Aviation...MMM