146
FXUS64 KEWX 232340
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
640 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The main focus for the short term is heat. Heat index values this
afternoon and Monday afternoon are expected to rise into the 100 to
110 range due to the combination of the subtropical ridge overhead,
residual surface moisture from recent rain, and moisture advection
from the Gulf. The Coastal Plains and portions of the I-35 corridor
are expected to be the general area for the upper end of that range.
As such a Heat Advisory may be needed for a few counties Monday
afternoon. The main question is how efficient afternoon mixing will
be for those counties. If drier air aloft is able to mix to the
surface then dew points may drop enough to keep heat index values
just shy of the 108 mark needed for an advisory. Regardless if an
advisory is issued or not or if you`re outside of the above
mentioned area, it is summer in south central Texas so be sure to
take precautions when dealing with the outdoor heat. This will be of
greater importance as we get further into the week (discussed in the
long term section).

A secondary focus for the short term is the chance for an isolated
shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours today and Monday
as the seabreeze makes inland progress. Despite general downward
trend in CAMs, will hang onto low end POPs across the Coastal Plains
for both days. Should these storms develop, the primary concern
would be brief locally heavy rain and possibly gusty winds due to
precip drag. They would also get a very brief reprieve from the
heat. Otherwise, dry (yet humid) conditions will prevail for the
remainder of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A persistent summertime regime will prevail across South-Central
Texas through the long term period as mid-level ridging dominates
the pattern while broad surface high pressure extends across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Western Atlantic. Rain chances
remain minimal with subsidence underneath the ridge. However, the
ridge looks to start transitioning later this week and re-align
farther to the east into and through this upcoming weekend. This
realignment could help the seabreeze activate slightly better and
possibly allow for isolated showers or convection to advance far
enough inland to enter portions of our coastal plain counties.
Otherwise, most locations will stay rain free. Despite the highs
only slightly above average, heat will be the main hazard through
the long term as dew points remain elevated and not as efficiently
mixed each afternoon with the combination of the moist light to
moderate flow off the Gulf of Mexico and the uptick in the soil
moistures from recent rainfall. Elevated heat indices up into the
105 to 110 degree range could make Heat Advisories possible for
portions of South-Central Texas each afternoon. The most favored
locations are likely to align along and southeast of the I-35

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Coastal convection and outflows are settling down and the wind shifts
and gust to move into the I-35 TAF sites look minimal thus far. The
slight increase in speeds and onshore wind directions tonight should
bring back the MVFR cigs in the late night hours for at least the
I-35 sites, with perhaps a brief showing in DRT. Dry air remains
aloft so a mid-morning mix-out to VFR is a good bet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  97  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  95  76  96 /   0  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  96  76  95 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  99  80 101 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76  96  76  97 /   0  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  95  75  96 /   0  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  94  76  94 /   0  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  96  77  96 /   0  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  96  77  97 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...18
Aviation...18