504
FXUS64 KEWX 251713
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1213 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Have expanded the areal coverage slightly for spotty showers/weak
convection through the afternoon across the coastal plains as radar
trends already show showers percolating over the Victoria Crossroads
and advancing northward into the coastal plains. There has been a
few stray showers across the Hill County as well around Kerr/Bandera
counties this morning but these showers are likely to dissipate
within the next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The upper level ridge is forecast to center northwest of the area,
with the southeast periphery of the ridge still maintaining an
influence over most of the area today. With the exception of a 10-
20% chance of stray to isolated tropical showers across portions of
Lavaca and DeWitt counties this afternoon, the area is forecast to
remain dry, warm, and humid today. We saw a few locations east of I-
35 briefly reach heat advisory criteria late yesterday, and with
temperatures at or slightly warmer today we are forecasting a larger
area of peak heat index values of 105-110 degrees along and east of
the I-35 and I-37 corridors. We have issued a Heat Advisory for this
area today and another advisory on Wednesday could be required.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The long term forecast will continue to revolve around the influence
of a 500mb Subtropical Ridge in place over the southwestern and
south-central CONUS. Hot and dry weather is expected area-wide
Thursday as temperatures soar into the mid to upper 90s. Heat
indices will likely climb into Heat Advisory territory for the
Coastal Plains, and perhaps as far west as the I-35 Corridor. A
similar setup can be expected on Friday, however, 500mb heights
weaken just a bit, opening the door for some seabreeze activity over
the Coastal Plains by late afternoon. Temperatures will remain in
the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the 108-112 range over the
Coastal Plains and portions of the I-35 Corridor. This daily chance
at a shower or storm will continue through the weekend into early
next week as weak easterly flow remains in place on the southern
periphery of the Subtropical Ridge. Expect typical Summer heat
through early next week with highs in the 90s and heat indices in
the 105-110 range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR flight conditions prevail at the area TAF sites throughout the
afternoon into this evening with few to sct fair weather cumulus.
Any spotty shower activity through early evening should stay to the
east of the sites within the coastal plain counties. Stratus with
MVFR ceilings will redevelop at the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT and
KSSF) overnight into Wednesday morning. KDRT remains VFR but some
scattered low clouds could reach the site around/after sunrise. All
sites should see returning VFR flight conditions into and through
Tuesday afternoon. Light to moderate winds prevail from out of the
east-southeast to south-southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79  99  78  99 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  78  97  76  98 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     78  97  76  98 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            77  97  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           82 102  81 103 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        78  97  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             77  98  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        77  96  75  96 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  94  77  94 /   0  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       79  97  78  98 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           79  98  78  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-
Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...Brady