917
FXUS62 KFFC 050600 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will produce
southerly flow across the forecast area bringing abundant moisture
to north and central Georgia through the short term forecast.
This surface moisture as well as warm temperatures will prime the
area for relatively active weather as an impulse embedded within
the 500 mb flow will move towards the area. This piece of energy
will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Hi-res guidance has been a bit all over the
map with respect to how today`s precip will play out spatially.
Generally speaking, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected across much of the forecast area today
where some locations may experience multiple rounds of activity.
SBCAPE between 1000-2000+ J/kg and low level lapse rates between
6 and 7+ C/km are progged for much of the region, however mid
level lapse rates as well as shear are lacking. In the absence of
appreciable upper level support, widespread severe storms are not
expected (though can`t rule out an isolated instance). A few
storms could become strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and periods of heavy rainfall (PWATs in this morning`s sounding
are running around 1.5" with forecast PWATs as high as 2.0" across
some locations in the CWA) being the primary concerns in storms
that form today. Overnight, the chance for showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue primarily for locations
north of the I-20 corridor as another wave associated with the
shortwave progresses over north Georgia.

The biggest concern Wednesday will be associated with a cold
front advancing across the Plains and into the mid-south tomorrow
with some Hi-Res guidance hinting at a line of storms moving
across portions of Mississippi and Alabama to our west. Current
trends show most of the organized convection beginning to wane
after sunset, but will need to monitor the evolution of the
upstream environment tomorrow to see if it holds together long
enough to impact portions of north and west Georgia. For now,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for much of the
day tomorrow. With little to no airmass change, similar hazards
will be at play tomorrow, with low (but not zero) chances for
severe thunderstorms.

High temperatures today and Wednesday will be running form the
80s to low 90s with overnight lows generally in the 60s.

KAL


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Complex upper air pattern will lead to a some what unusually
strong upper level system for June pushing a cold front (!) into
the area by Thursday. A huge anticyclonic wave break crashing
through the western CONUS and into the eastern CONUS will shear
off a decent chunk of the polar tropopause allowing for deep,
coherent vortex to form over the Great Lakes region. Bowling ball
of an upper level low will have a broad sfc reflection that will
drive an initial front into the area on Thursday morning or
afternoon. With plenty of moisture expected to be in place, PoP
chances are elevated. Models have not been too excited in terms of
coverage or QPF with this for a variety of reasons - there is
certainly a lack of convergence along the front, but there is
likely to have been a few days of ongoing thunderstorms preceding
the front that may have worked over the upper atmosphere a bit. Do
think even the hires guidance that has gotten into range is a bit
underdone in coverage just given the environment with a front
approaching. Not currently expecting any severe with this, but
will never rule out a storm getting a little spicy in Georgia
during June.

A secondary cold front moves in by Thursday night and brings much
drier air to the CWA. This will cut off most of our PoP chances
for the next few days as high pressure with a drier surface
airmass settles in. Alas, the moisture cannot stay gone for long,
for it is June in Georgia and we can`t have nice things with the
bathtub known as the Gulf of Mexico sitting nearby. Moisture
filters back in by Sunday as the upper level low over the Great
Lakes begins to break into two pieces, with one rotating towards
us. PoP chances will increase as a result.

Temps through this time period will be dependent on location.
North Georgia will see highs in the low to mid 80s through much of
the period with lows in the lower 60s. Some upper 50s may even be
possible Friday night as the drier, cooler continental airmass
settles in. In central Georgia highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, with lows in the 60s.

Lusk


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Have VCSH at all TAF sites except CSG at some point for the
remainder of the overnight as there are iso`d SHRA and TSRA across
N and CNTRL GA. MVFR/IFR cigs (possibly LIFR at AHN) look to
spread over AHN and the ATL area sites between 08z-10z and persist
until 14z-15z. AHN may also have MVFR/IFR vsby restrictions.
Sct`d Cu field is expected this afternoon along with iso`d/scat`d
SHRA and TSRA (covered by a PROB30 at all sites). Winds will be
SSW to SW at 5-10 kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on morning cigs and timing/coverage of SHRA/TSRA.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  85  67  86 /  50  50  10   0
Atlanta         69  86  68  85 /  50  50  10   0
Blairsville     64  82  60  77 /  70  40  10   0
Cartersville    67  87  64  84 /  60  40  10   0
Columbus        71  87  70  91 /  30  70  10  10
Gainesville     69  84  66  83 /  60  40  10   0
Macon           70  88  70  91 /  20  70  10  10
Rome            68  88  65  86 /  60  40  10   0
Peachtree City  68  86  67  86 /  40  50  10   0
Vidalia         73  91  72  94 /  20  70  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Martin