224
FXUS62 KFFC 040603
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
203 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Region of diffluent flow is parked over the CWA as we are caught at
the edge of subtropical ridge to our southwest and deepening ridge to
our north. Southerly flow at the surface has allowed for moisture to
continue to return to the area with dewpoints rising well into the
mid to upper 60s. Airmass storms will be possible through most of the
short term period. While there will be some diurnal component to
this, with best chances during the afternoon/evening hours each day,
moisture quality will remain high enough overnight to allow for
continued development, especially with any outflow or weak impulses
that move by the area. Given the weak upper level flow, impulses in
this sense will likely be vortmax created by MCS systems to the west,
of which one is currently ongoing in eastern OK.

Severe weather is not expected, but can`t rule out a storm or two
going up big enough and collapse hard enough to do a little wind
damage. Shear is very low over Georgia and will remain that way
through forecast period, generally < 20 kts 0-6km. Mid levels and
upper levels are relatively warm but dry, so CAPE values are
relatively skinny at ~1000 J/kg and updrafts may struggle with some
dry air entrainment.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

At a glance:

    - Daily rain chances

    - Return to slightly above average warmth

As we enter the extended range on Wednesday, low-amplitude mid-level
ridging overspreads much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface,
the Southeast sits on the far western periphery of a surface high,
within a relative weakness in presiding flow. A shortwave disturbance
and associated moisture maxima approaching from the west will
support the development of mostly diurnally-driven convection during
the afternoon Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible, but in the absence of organizational
kinematics, not expecting much in the way of severe weather chances.
The entirety of the state is outlined by SPC`s General Thunder risk
for Day 3, supportive of an isolated strong storm.

Beyond Wednesday, a mid-level ridge sets up across the Desert
Southwest, positioning the Deep South under a regime of northwesterly
flow that carries through the remainder of the long- term period. As
is characteristic of this flow pattern, low-end chance PoPs (30-50%)
will develop each day. With moist southwesterly flow off of the Gulf
of Mexico -- and PWATs >1.5" each day -- the atmosphere will be
primed for efficient rainfall and quick recovery between rounds of
convection. Forecast multi-day (Wednesday through Friday) rainfall
totals across north and central Georgia currently stand between a
tenth and three-quarters of an inch, but these values may be exceeded
in areas that experience stronger, longer- lived, or slower-moving
storms. For now, it looks like the best chances for more quasi-
organized thunderstorms will come overnight Wednesday into Thursday,
aided by a pre-frontal trough. Even so, any weak disturbances
traversing our mid-level flow could serve as a catalyst to nudge any
discrete cells into more long-lived clusters that persist beyond the
loss of afternoon heating. Per SPC, and corroborated by taking a dive
into ensemble guidance, predictability is too low at this range to
pin down any clear signals for widespread severe weather. The most
probable outcome appears to be an isolated strong to marginally
severe storm (typical as we move into a more summertime pattern
driven by instability as opposed to wind shear) capable of producing
gusty to damaging winds and nuisance flooding if storm motions are
slow.

Rain and storm chances then look to taper off for a majority of the
weekend as a drier airmass settles in in the wake of a cold frontal
passage. However, chances for isolated airmass/diurnally-driven
afternoon thunderstorms will return Sunday into Monday. Highs will be
in the mid-80s to lower-90s each day, with lows in the 60s to
lower-70s.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The threat of low cigs around daybreak this morning has lessened,
although IFR cigs remain possible N and W of the Atlanta metro area
and around AHN. There are better chances for thunderstorms today,
particularly at northern terminals (Atlanta metro and AHN). Mid-level
dry air is expected to exit the area, with fairly moist profiles
today. A couple of weak shortwaves are forecast to move across the
area during the afternoon and evening hour, possibly organizing
convection into broken N/S oriented lines. MVFR cigs and vsbys are
possible in showers and storms. Winds are expected to be light
outside of storms. Wind directions at ATL will be mostly out of the
SSW during the day, possibly shifting to SSE during the evening.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on morning low cigs (or lack thereof) and timing of afternoon
and evening convection, high on all other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  86  68  88 /  60  70  60  40
Atlanta         69  87  71  87 /  60  60  60  40
Blairsville     63  79  64  82 /  70  90  70  30
Cartersville    67  87  68  87 /  60  70  70  40
Columbus        69  90  71  89 /  50  40  50  60
Gainesville     67  84  69  87 /  60  80  60  40
Macon           69  89  71  89 /  60  50  50  60
Rome            68  86  69  89 /  60  80  70  30
Peachtree City  67  88  69  87 /  60  50  60  40
Vidalia         70  91  72  89 /  50  60  40  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...SEC