249
FXUS62 KFFC 021101
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
701 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A broad upper trough will continue to support lingering showers and
afternoon thunderstorms today. Activity will be increase in coverage
during the afternoon as multi-layered cloudiness thins out and
instability increases. CAPE values during this time frame are
forecast to range from 1000-1500 J/kg across the N and W portions of
the County Warning Area, with values across the SE portion of the
area generally less than 500 J/kg. A few storms may briefly become
strong if enough insolation is realized, but severe storms are not
expected. High temperatures today are forecast to range from near 70
in the NE mountains to the mid 80s across the S third of the area.

Thunderstorms should weaken quickly this evening, with just a few
lingering showers overnight. Low temperatures by Monday morning will
range from near 60 in the NE to the mid 60s across most of the
remainder of the area.

As the upper trough shifts farther E on Monday, showers and a few
thunderstorms will become more diurnally driven, with the best
chances across the SE portion of the area (closer to the
aforementioned trough). Due to decreasing instability, storms are
not expected to be strong. High temperatures on Monday will range
from the upper 70s in the NE to near 90 SE of Macon. /SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Relatively weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft at the start of the long-
term period will transition to a more amplified, ridging pattern at
the end. Ample moisture advection courtesy of southerly to
southwesterly flow plus diurnal heating will support isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms each day Tuesday through
Thursday. In addition, periodic disturbances in the quasi-zonal flow
could help organize convection and potentially aid in upscale growth
into multi-cell clusters/MCSs (thus allowing showers and storms to
persist overnight even after instability wanes) but that will be more
of a short-term period challenge as these disturbances are often
tricky to forecast farther out than a couple days. A lack of well-
defined forcing and little to no deep-layer shear suggests that the
potential for organized/widespread severe weather is quite low. That
said, strong storms with localized damaging wind gusts and small hail
will be possible. The QPF ranges from 0.10" to 0.25" across central
Georgia to 0.50" to 0.75" across north Georgia. Localized rainfall
totals around 1.0" are possible generally in the higher terrain of
north Georgia, where orographic lift may aid in precip efficiency.
High temps will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s outside of the
mountains; for low temps, lower 60s to lower 70s.

Rain chances are expected to drop off significantly on Friday and
Saturday as ensemble guidance depicts a building upper-level ridge
over the western two-thirds of the CONUS, placing the CWA beneath
northwest flow aloft. At the surface, drier air will accompany this
pattern change, indicated by dew points falling into the 60s area-
wide amid westerly to northwesterly surface winds. While low temps in
the upper 50s to mid-60s are forecasted for much of the CWA on
Saturday morning, high temps will remain in the mid-80s to lower 90s
outside of the mountains this weekend.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Isolated shower activity this early this morning will give way to
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon, with
the greatest likelihood/duration around the Atlanta metro area and
points N. Have changed PROB30 groups to TEMPO in these areas.
Winds are expected to be light outside of thunderstorms. Wind
direction at ATL is expected to veer from SE to SSW around midday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium for wind direction, medium to high for all other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  86  66  89 /  40  20  10  20
Atlanta         66  86  68  89 /  40  20  10  30
Blairsville     59  81  61  83 /  20  30  10  30
Cartersville    64  86  66  89 /  20  20  10  30
Columbus        67  88  69  90 /  30  20  10  20
Gainesville     64  84  66  87 /  30  20  10  30
Macon           66  88  68  90 /  30  30  10  20
Rome            64  88  66  89 /  10  20  10  30
Peachtree City  64  86  66  89 /  30  20  10  20
Vidalia         67  89  69  92 /  30  40  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...SEC