151
FXUS62 KFFC 181855
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The upper low over the Carolinas will open up within the broader E
Coast trough over the next 24 hours. The trough will shift slowly as
the upper ridge from TX to the lower OH Valley builds. At the
surface, a weak quasi-stationary front with several waves of low
pressure along across the S portion of the County Warning Area (CWA)
will sink S tonight. This front is firing off showers across the SE
CWA. A few thunderstorms are possible in that area prior to sunset.
Isolated showers are also occurring across the NE zones. A rumble of
thunder is possible there as well, particularly in the mountains.
Have adjusted cloud cover up for tonight over the NBM. However,
clouds are expected to generally thin through the night, although
some low clouds may thicken again toward daybreak across the NE. A
few showers are possible once again Thu afternoon in the NE
mountains. However, shower activity associated with the
aforementioned front should shift S of the area by then.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s in the NE
mountains to the upper 60s in the extreme SE. With less cloud cover
expected on Thu, high temperatures are expected to range from the mid
to upper 80s across most of the area, with some 70s in the NE
mountains. Low temperatures Thu night will be similar to tonight`s.

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Key Messages:

- A small mention of rain around mid-week next week, otherwise, dry
conditions in the long term

- Temperatures will warm up through the weekend

Still a good bit uncertainty for the long term weather pattern with
this forecast update. The most notable change compared to the
previous forecast was slightly warmer daytime highs this weekend (+/-
2-4 degrees). This is owing to the departure of a surface low up the
East Coast and how quickly a surface high can take up residence
across the northeast. Again, there is still disparity among latest
ensemble (EPS/GEFS) runs with the features mentioned above. Elected
to not deviate too much from the previous forecast and still reflects
the scenario of the `delayed` onset of a wedge set up across the
northeast -- with forecast high temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s through the weekend. Once the wedge does settle into the region,
temperatures will cool off a bit. Rain could make a brief return late
next week but overall chances remain quite low.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. However,
thick CU and SC clouds continue across the Atlanta metro area and
AHN. There are some areas of 2500 ft cigs near these terminals, but
cigs should continue to slowly lift through the remainder of the
afternoon. The best chance of MVFR to IFR cigs tonight will be at
AHN, where a tempo 600 ft cig has been included later tonight.
Rain-wise, a few showers are possible later this afternoon around
the Atlanta metro area and AHN. However, models indicate a weak
subsidence inversion at around 750mb, very limited CAPE, and waning
dynamic forcing from the Carolina upper low should keep any activity
to a minimum. Winds will be light, with ATL veering from NW to NE
during the evening hours before possible backing to NNW Thu morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high for cig heights, high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  85  65  87 /   0  10   0   0
Atlanta         66  86  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     59  81  60  83 /  10  20   0   0
Cartersville    64  88  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        67  88  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     64  85  66  86 /  10  10   0   0
Macon           66  88  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            64  88  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  64  86  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         69  86  69  86 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SEC