831
FXUS62 KFFC 200515
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
115 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024


...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Dome of high pressure is in place over the CWA through the short
term and will continue to build west through Thursday. Central
American Gyre (CAG) has spun off a very potent vortmax that has
developed into very broad system in the western Gulf. Large amount
of moisture has pooled around that system and is being piped up
into system over the Midwest. This moisture remains to our east,
and should remain that way, thanks to our ridge aloft continuing
to build as a by-product of latent heat release. Bermuda high
sitting off the eastern coast at the surface means easterly
surface winds across the CWA today into tomorrow.

Dry airmass remains in place as air continues to filter down the
Appalachians, isolating us from the Gulf (no complaints for June),
however some moisture from the Atlantic may be able to make its
way into portions of east central Georgia, especially as the
seabreeze front pushes towards the area later this evening. This
could be enough to fire up some very isolated storms later this
afternoon into the evening in this area. Environment is not very
potent, so would not expect these to be severe.

Thursday night, small tropical wave will moving along the
southern periphery of the Bermuda high and northern edge of
subtropical ridge/CAG near the Bahamas. This feature is expected
to approach Georgia bringing some moisture changes - see long term
for more info.

Highs today and tomorrow will be relatively seasonable, in the
upper 80s and lower 90s. Thanks to dry airmass, feels like
temperatures will be in the same ballpark. Lows tonight and
tomorrow night will be in the mid to upper 60s, once again
seasonable for this time of year.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Key Messages:

- Rain chances will gradually increase Friday through Sunday,
  with scattered thunderstorms expected Monday and Tuesday.

- Temperatures will gradually increase this weekend into early
  next week, with heat index values potentially nearing the Heat
  Advisory threshold (105 degrees) across portions of the forecast
  area Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

Not much change in the long-term period since the overnight
forecast package... Ensemble guidance depicts a retrograding
upper-level ridge over the south-central and southeastern CONUS
with gradually weakening surface high pressure Friday and
Saturday. Meanwhile, the slug of moisture associated with what is
currently Disturbance 1 (per the NHC) east of the Bahamas will
move inland over at least a portion of the forecast area,
characterized by PWAT of 1.5" to 2.0". Like previous forecasts,
continuing with a 20% to 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms
mainly across central Georgia on Friday and Saturday. At this
time, NHC is maintaining a 20% chance that Disturbance 1 organizes
into a tropical system in the next 7 days.

Ensemble guidance depicts the upper-level ridge shifting further
west Sunday through Tuesday, while upper-level troughing develops
over the Northeast. The moist environment and further degradation
of the ridging aloft should lead to an uptick in shower and
thunderstorm chances/coverage during this period (30% to 60%
PoPs). There is no signal for widespread severe weather as strong
upper-level winds should be relegated to the northern tier of the
CONUS, but tropical moisture and daytime heating could generate
some strong to marginally severe storms each day, with localized
damaging wind gusts, torrential downpours, and frequent cloud-to-
ground lightning.

Temperatures will be on the increase heading into the weekend as
well, with highs in the lower 90s to mid-90s on Friday and
Saturday. Heat index values are expected to range from 97 to 103
on Saturday. Highs will increase slightly to the mid-90s to near
100 degrees on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, with heat index values
ranging from 100 to 105 across portions of the forecast area.
Portions of central Georgia could have heat index values greater
than 105 early next week, which could warrant Heat Advisories.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions (SKC-BKN AOA 5000 ft AGL and unrestricted
visibility) will prevail in the region through at least 12Z
Friday. Easterly (070-100) winds will continue in the region, with
peak speeds of 8 to 14 kt expected between 14Z and 23Z Thursday.
Gusts in the 18 to 24 kt range should occur between 15Z and 21Z
Thursday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence in all elements of the KATL TAF.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  92  69  95 /   0  10   0  20
Atlanta         70  93  72  96 /   0   0   0  20
Blairsville     63  87  64  91 /   0  10   0  20
Cartersville    68  94  69  96 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus        69  95  73  96 /   0  20  10  30
Gainesville     68  90  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
Macon           66  94  71  96 /   0  20  10  30
Rome            69  95  71  98 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  66  93  69  96 /   0  10   0  20
Vidalia         68  92  73  94 /  10  50  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...Albright