Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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882 FXUS62 KFFC 211847 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 247 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 246 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 At a glance: -Period of calm weather continues. -Max temperatures will run between 5 and 10 degrees above normal. It may be the first day of fall according the the calendar, but summer isn`t going anywhere. High pressure will keep daytime highs in the low 90s while overnight lows will be in the upper 60s and low 70s. Winds are expected to stay out of the SW and W which will largely keep temperatures running above average through the weekend. As far as pops go, you`ll have to look at the long term for any hope of that. A few afternoon CU clouds will be as much as we can dare to ask for. So get out and enjoy the nice weather! Vaughn && .LONG TERM... (Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 246 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Current high pressure over the southern CONUS is expected to dampen beginning Monday when the low pressure system currently near the four corners region lifts northeastward into the mid MS valley. As it moves, an associated sfc level cold front will push into Tennessee and north Georgia by Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will in turn increase rain chances for north Georgia. As it pushes further southward through Wednesday and Thursday the rain chances look to increase along with the system. The EPS and GEFS are both indicating marginal shear and sfc based CAPE values at this time, so while there likely will be thunderstorms associated with these showers, it will likely be isolated in nature. The risk for any widespread severe weather remains low. Due to the relatively weak nature of the front and marginal shear values, organized thunderstorms are not expected and thus our QPF values remain mainly below 0.5" and will likely be isolated/scattered in nature. One positive of this, is the temperatures will start to decrease by Wednesday into the mid 80s and then the low 80s to start off the weekend. This will bring temps much closer to normal for this time of year. Ensemble guidance continues to indicate an area of low pressure forming over the Yucatan Peninsula before moving into the western/central Gulf of Mexico. NHC continues to carry a 60% chances fro tropical development over the next 7 days. Current EPS and GEFS ensemble forecast tracks are indicating that anywhere along the gulf coast is fair game for any potential landfall at this time. The models should get a better idea of this system once the area of low pressure actually forms mid this week. Another factor coming into play is how this troughing plays out over the eastern CONUS and how it will help steer the system. Current rainfall totals are around an inch but again with the uncertainty this is highly subject to change. More information should come together over the next couple of days although uncertainty still remains. Hernandez && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure will bring light SW winds at less than 5kts through the TAF period. A CU field with VFR CIGS will form after 16Z; but will gradually dissipate after 00Z. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 68 94 69 92 / 0 0 0 10 Atlanta 71 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 64 86 64 85 / 0 10 0 30 Cartersville 67 94 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 70 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 69 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 Macon 67 95 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 68 94 67 93 / 0 10 0 10 Peachtree City 68 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 68 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Vaughn