109
FXUS62 KFFC 212345
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
745 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

A quiet weather pattern will prevail through the short term. High
pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will continue to
suppress any appreciable precipitation chances through Wednesday.
The only exception would be an isolated orographically induced
shower or thunderstorm this afternoon in the mountains of far
northeast Georgia, but the vast majority of us will remain dry.

Temperatures Wednesday will continue our gradual warming trend
with highs creeping up a degree or two above today, reaching the
mid-to-upper 80s areawide outside of the mountains.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft will start off the long-term
period on Thursday. Perturbations in the flow over the TN Valley
will help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday
and Friday, mainly across north Georgia. The SREF is depicting
virtually a 100% chance for SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg and a 60%
chance or greater for CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg, and with 30+ kts
of surface-to-500mb bulk shear, scattered convection looks likely
both days. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s outside of
the mountains on Thursday and Friday. Lows will be in the 60s.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will build in this weekend through Monday
with continued perturbations in the flow. An influx of moisture --
characterized by PWAT climbing to around 1.5" per ensemble
guidance -- and ample instability will support area-wide PoPs,
with the greatest PoPs (45% to 65%) across north Georgia each day.
SPC has a Day 6 (Sunday) 15% risk for severe weather across a
portion of the OH and TN Valleys (just northwest of Georgia) given
the progged proximity of a 500mb speed max along with ample
progged instability. Across portions of north Georgia on Sunday,
the GEFS has a 20% to 30% chance for CAPE greater than 500 J/kg
and bulk shear greater than 40 kts, so some strong to severe
storms are possible. Highs this weekend and Monday will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows will be in the mid-60s to lower 70s.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions through period. FEW/SCT cu field at 4, lifting to
8, kft tomorrow. Winds light from SE to variable and calm. General
shift to SSW tomorrow morning at 3 to 6 kts. No precipitation
expected.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High all elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  87  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         64  87  69  88 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     59  81  62  81 /   0  10  10  30
Cartersville    63  88  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
Columbus        64  88  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     63  85  67  86 /   0   0   0  20
Macon           63  88  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            63  88  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
Peachtree City  62  88  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         65  88  68  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...SM