Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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146
FXUS62 KFFC 240030 AAB
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
830 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Thunderstorm chances overnight look slim so I have removed
with just shower chances, most so later tonight.
Otherwise no changes.

BDL

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 702 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

This should be our last dry day as increase moisture pushes in from
the gulf tonight and Monday. Still seeing temps well above seasonal
norms today but with the clouds and rain moving in over night and
through Monday expecting high temps to be about 2 to 8 deg cooler
Monday than today. Going with slight to chance Pops tonight and
nearing likely pops Monday afternoon especially across N and NW GA.
There is a fairly stationary developing frontal system extending
from the Mid Atlantic states down to Central TX that is expected to
move just ever so slightly eastward through the short term. At the
same time a weak open wave moves NE out of the Gulf bringing
increased deep layer moisture to North and Central GA. There is
not a lot of instability with this wave or associated with the front
so only expecting showers with general thunderstorms.

01

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

No significant changes were made to the Long term. GFS and ECMWF
continue to differ somewhat on how much drying will take place
during the upcoming weekend...with the GFS trending toward drier.
Not seeing much difference in the upper air pattern though. Will
leave north GA dry on Sunday as in the previous forecast. Previous
discussion is included below.

41

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 448 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018/
LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

Should have somewhat of a lingering wedge across north GA going
into Tuesday while the parent high pushes eastward off the New
England coast. By afternoon this feature should be mostly eroded
and regime Tuesday through Thursday looks to be marked by an
enhanced deep layer moisture field draped across the NW majority
of the CWA with increased precip potential from a conditionally
unstable environment and any weak perturbations traversing the
rather elongated moisture field/NW side of the south Atlantic
ridge. Models still have some slight discrepancies on how much
energy could generate along the broad trough to the north to push
a front and associated moisture swath south on Friday into
Saturday (the GFS still a bit more progressive/drier than the
Euro).

Temps cooler through period due to aforementioned regime and
precip potential though still a few degrees above climo.

Baker

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions to start with potential for IFR/MVFR ceilings to
develop late night/early morning. Any lower ceilings will improve
to VFR. There will be increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
Monday. Surface winds mainly light ESE or calm overnight then 10
kts or less Monday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence for cloud amounts and heights.
Low confidence for shower/storm chances around airfield on Monday.
High confidence for vsbys and winds.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  82  69  85 /  40  40  40  30
Atlanta         71  84  71  84 /  40  50  40  40
Blairsville     64  74  65  77 /  40  50  50  50
Cartersville    70  83  70  85 /  30  50  40  40
Columbus        72  89  72  89 /  20  40  30  30
Gainesville     69  78  69  81 /  40  50  40  40
Macon           70  89  71  89 /  20  40  30  30
Rome            70  83  70  85 /  30  50  40  50
Peachtree City  69  85  70  85 /  30  50  30  30
Vidalia         71  89  70  91 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...BDL



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