Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 160653
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
253 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019


.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

500mb analysis shows high pressure anchored over SE GA/N FL. The
high center begins to shift offshore overnight as the trough from
the remains of Barry begin to shift east. The trough moves through
during the day tomorrow. The NAM is doing things a bit differently,
by cutting off another upper low over MS...while the other models
actually bring the trough through. Discounting the NAM for now.

Weaker high pressure does continue at the surface today, but does
shift a bit south/southeast tonight. Convective development should
be limited in coverage again today. A bit more coverage is expected
on Wednesday, up north, closest to the mid level energy associated
with the remnants of Barry. An isolated strong storm cannot be ruled
out, but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

The long term portion of the forecast begins with high pressure
starting to flatten and shift west across the southeastern states
with the remnant trough from Barry across northern portions of the
local forecast area. The trough is expected to continue to push east
through the area on Thursday bringing slight chance to chance
pops for showers and thunderstorms with the highest pops across
the northern tier in the afternoon and evening. High pressure then
builds back into the area on Friday through the weekend. With
moisture trapped under the ridge and pockets of mid-level energy
rotating across the southern periphery of the high, chance pops
have been included through the weekend with the best coverage in
the afternoons and evenings. High pressure then gets pushed out
of the area and a front begins to approach the area at the end of
the long term period. At this point, have just included slight
chance to chance pops mainly in the afternoons and evenings until
models are in better agreement on timing of the front.

High temperatures through the extended are running about 2 to 5
degrees above average with temps in the 90s, with 80s in the
mountains. With the warmer temperatures, heat indices will be
increasing as well and are currently forecast to be in the 100 to
106 deg range and will need to be monitored. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, around 4 to 7
degrees above average.

Reaves

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR cigs through the period. Sct to occasionally bkn cirrus at
times with low level cu between 4-6kft. Winds will remain on the
west side with speeds 6-7kt or less. Direction may try to go VRB
at night or in the early morning. Precip chances to low to mention
at this time.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          96  74  96  74 /  20  10  20  20
Atlanta         94  76  92  75 /  10  10  20  20
Blairsville     88  68  85  68 /  20  10  40  30
Cartersville    94  73  92  73 /  10  10  20  30
Columbus        96  75  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
Gainesville     92  74  91  73 /  20  10  20  30
Macon           98  75  97  76 /  30  10  20  10
Rome            95  73  91  73 /  10  10  30  30
Peachtree City  95  74  93  74 /  10  10  20  20
Vidalia         99  76  97  76 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...NListemaa


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