Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 280245 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
945 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

...Evening Update...

Issued at 925 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

The only impactful change to the forecast on the evening shift
has been to update overnight winds and gusts using a blend of
recent hi-res guidance, as conditions have not been quite as gusty
as forecasted this evening. Still, increasingly gusty winds will
occur overnight and persist through Wednesday evening, which has
prompted the issuance of a Wind Advisory across all of the
forecast area. Previous forecast discussions are below.



(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

Shortwave moving through the area today has produced light rain
and cloudy conditions over the area, and will continue though the
short term period. Overall, rainfall amounts have been really
limited and, aside from a few lightning strikes over far northeast
Georgia, the precip activity today has been largely unremarkable.
The pressure gradient over the area has already produced breezy
conditions this afternoon, and aside from a slight lull late this
evening, blustery conditions will continue through Wednesday. A
Wind Advisory has been issued for much of north Georgia, effective
this afternoon, with the remaining portion of the state included
after midnight tonight. Winds will largely be 15 to 25 mph with
gusts to 30-35 mph, in the higher elevations of north Georgia,
gusts could reach 45 mph.

Deepening trough over the central CONUS will push a cold front
through the state Wednesday. Models continue to show a very narrow
band of showers accompanying the front through the day, with the
latest timing pushing the tight reflectivity band through the ATL
area between 18-21Z / 1-4 PM. Thunder chances are non-zero, but
limited enough not to be a focus. Have included slight chance
thunder in the grids, but this may be tailored out later. Although
the overall timing of this system has been a challenge for the
various forecast models in previous runs, there seems to be better
consensus as of now. At this time, SPC has the northern half of
Georgia in a general thunder threat, with no concern for strong or
severe storms.

Temperatures Wednesday will remain above normal, but expect a big
shift behind the front and into the long term.



(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 253 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

A brief dry period will exist before the next storm system
affects the forecast area by early Friday. Models show a series of
upr lvl "waves" within a southwest southern branch flow that
bring at least a chance of rain through this weekend (w/ the focus
for more organized precip -- behind Friday`s system -- over
central and south GA). At this time, total QPF is not overly
impressive despite the extended duration of precip (Fri-Sun).
75th percentile 24-hour QPF from medium-range ensemble models
showing < 1/4" over north GA and up to 1/2" over parts of central
GA both Saturday and Sunday. An isolated embedded storm is
possible, but at this time, there is no threat for strong to
severe storms through this weekend.

Shortwave ridge attempts to build over the area early next week
before another system approaches, but differences in
timing/position of next week`s event resulting in rather low
confidence on the details.

Temperatures will be on a bit of roller coaster through this
period. The first system that comes in Friday runs into a rare
(for this Winter) "wedge" so high temps may struggle to get out of
the 40s to lwr 50s across much north GA (Friday). Whatever wedge
influences exist Friday should quickly erode by Sat/Sun as temps
rebound back into the 60s and 70s and this should continue into
the early part of next week.



(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

Gusty SW winds will persist through the TAF period at all sites.
Sustained winds will be 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts. Winds
are expected to shift to NW after ~20z Wednesday. A narrow line of
SHRA and PSBL embedded TSRA is still expected to move through the
ATL area and AHN between 18z and 22z. For MCN and CSG, the timing
is 20z to 00z. Thunder potential remains too low to mention in
the TAFs. As far as CIGs go, MVFR are expected overnight through
much of Wednesday. Brief, intermittent periods of IFR CIGs are
possible Wednesday morning into early afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.



Athens          59  76  35  57 /  20  80  40   0
Atlanta         61  75  36  57 /   0  80  40   0
Blairsville     57  68  28  56 /  20  90  30   0
Cartersville    62  74  31  57 /  10  80  30   0
Columbus        62  81  41  62 /  10  50  30   0
Gainesville     60  73  35  56 /  10  90  40   0
Macon           60  79  41  61 /   0  40  40   0
Rome            60  72  31  56 /  10  80  20   0
Peachtree City  61  77  35  59 /  10  80  40   0
Vidalia         56  81  47  62 /   0  10  20   0


Wind Advisory until midnight EST Wednesday night for GAZ001>009-

Wind Advisory until midnight EST Wednesday night for GAZ024-025-



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