Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 221141
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
641 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020



.UPDATE...

12z Aviation update below.

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...

Dry ridge dominated start to the fcst with temps moderating warmer
than yesterday though still about 5 degrees below climo. Main issue
today will be how low the dewpts mix down to this afternoon given
the very dry thermal profiles. Went with about a degree above the
MAV/MET blend which does bring much of the area with resultant RH
values under 25 percent and will warrant a Fire Danger Statement
accordingly since fuels should be a tad drier than yesterday.

For Thursday, an amplifying trough west of area and increased
moisture advection will have gradually increasing cloud coverage and
some isentropically induced shower chances for the western portion
of the area by afternoon. The chances/coverage could trend sooner
with future updates so cannot rule out even some shower potential
starting by the morning.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

At the start of the long term period, an occluded storm system
will be moving across the Ozarks with a warm front moving north
over the forecast area and prefrontal rain showers increasing in
coverage. Overall, forecast rainfall will range from a quarter of
an inch in the southeast forecast area to around an inch in the
higher elevations. Trends for a rumble of thunder have been on an
increase for Friday afternoon, but no more than for a slight
chance in southern portions of the forecast area.

Recent trends have also been favoring the frontal system moving
through slightly quicker with rains clearing by Friday afternoon
and evening with surface high pressure moving into the
Southeastern CONUS. After the frontal system, near normal
temperatures will come back to the area for several days.

The next shot at some light precip will come from a shortwave
coming from northwest flow on early monday morning, model guidance
has picked up on this trend very recently but are in better
consistency than would be anticipated. Rain chances are still
small but could increase in later forecast packages with only
light showers anticipated at this time. Following this shortwave,
upper-level ridging will dominate the rest of the forecast period.

Thiem/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions thru period with
initially clear skies. Gradual increase of some cirrus/alto later
today into Thursday ahead of next system. Winds should stay NE to
east generally 4-9 kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High on all elements.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          49  32  49  39 /   0   0  10  80
Atlanta         49  34  48  41 /   0   0  20  90
Blairsville     48  29  47  37 /   0   0  10  90
Cartersville    49  33  48  40 /   0   0  20  90
Columbus        53  36  54  47 /   0   0  20  80
Gainesville     47  32  46  38 /   0   0  10  90
Macon           52  34  54  45 /   0   0  10  80
Rome            49  32  48  40 /   0   0  30  90
Peachtree City  50  33  50  42 /   0   0  20  90
Vidalia         53  36  56  47 /   0   0   5  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....Thiem/Martin
AVIATION...Baker



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