Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 010020
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
720 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021




...00Z Aviation Area Forecast Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

For the rest of the afternoon, temperatures will be well above
seasonal with highs in the mid to upper 70s with some low 80s across
the far south and eastern part of the CWA. These daytime highs will
be around 15 degrees above normal.

A cold front will enter the area tonight and into the overnight
hours. There is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms across
far NW GA, but given that the best instability remains mostly west
of the area, any strong storm we have will likely enter from outside
of the CWA. Rain and the occasional rumble of thunder will move SE
during the overnight and morning hours. QPF totals will likely be
under 1 inch, confined to mostly the northern tier counties. While
widespread flash flooding and area flooding are not expected, there
is the possibility for some localized flooding during the overnight
hours.

Tomorrow will be a bit of a transition day. Rain should tapper off
just after noon. The front mostly stalls off along a line from CSG
to ATH. NW of the front, temps will be moderated to upper 50s to mid
60s, while SW of the front will see another day in the mid to high
70s.

Vaughn

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

No big changes for the long term. Models in decent agreement on the
overall pattern. Low pressure forming in the northern Gulf on
Tuesday...coupled with a lower MS River Valley upper short wave will
track across our area through Wednesday. One to two inches of rain
will be possible for most of central Georgia Tuesday and Tuesday
night with some locally higher amounts possible. With these rainfall
totals there is some concern for isolated flooding with this
system...but currently conditions have been dry for central Georgia.
Also...there is enough limited instability to keep mention of
thunder in for much of GA through Tuesday night. Models agree that
after the low pushes eastward on Wednesday...the forecast area looks
to dry out through Friday. Strong surface high pressure slides into
the forecast area from the Northern Plains over the weekend. This
high pressure looks to bring quite a bit of dry air into the area.
The dry northwest flow aloft sets up for several days and seems to
suppress the next storm system...forecast for Saturday/Sunday...off
to the south. So have kept low pops for late Friday into Saturday
for the area Atlanta to Athens and south.

41

HYDROLOGY...

Forecast rainfall totals for tonight and through the day Monday
have come down slightly, with the highest risk being in far NW GA.
New totals are around and inch, as the bulk of the QPF will be
further NW of the CWA. However, soils do remain fairly wet from
recent rain and a few river points remain in action stage in this
area. Given borderline rain fall totals and current river
forecasts, no Flash Flood watch is needed at this time.

On Tuesday, a marginal risk for excessive rainfall exists across
central GA. Given the relatively dry conditions that area has
experienced, the threat of widespread flash flooding is low. That
being said, areas that receive high rainfall totals in a short
period or any areas of training precip may experience some localized
flooding.

Vaughn

AVIATION... 18Z Update...



Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Winds coming down, generally less than 10 kts across TAF sites,
with VFR conditions in place. Main concern is later tonight as
cloud deck will fill in from the south and north as a front moves
into the area. Currently expecting MVFR across all but CSG, but
can`t rule out the possibility of some IFR in the metro TAF sites
early in the morning, though confidence low enough to not include
in TAF. Winds will shift northerly behind front tomorrow, and some
SHRA can be expected early in the morning.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence in MVFR vs IFR cigs in the morning hours. High
confidence all other elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  64  42  51 /  40  70  20  60
Atlanta         61  63  44  50 /  50  80  30  70
Blairsville     57  60  33  49 /  90  90  10  50
Cartersville    59  62  41  51 /  80  90  20  70
Columbus        64  66  48  54 /  30  70  40  80
Gainesville     58  61  40  50 /  60  80  20  60
Macon           63  68  46  54 /  20  60  30  80
Rome            59  61  40  54 /  90  90  20  60
Peachtree City  61  64  43  51 /  40  80  30  80
Vidalia         63  72  48  54 /  10  50  30  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Lusk


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