Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 162329
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
729 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Seems to be no real focus for thunderstorm development again today
except for leftover boundaries. Heavy rain continues to be a
threat as storms are slow moving. Upper air shows a weakening
upper ridge with a broad trough forming over the southeast during
the period. Models indicating a front drifting into north GA
Tuesday afternoon/evening with some drier air spreading into the
state. Still looks like basically a diurnal pattern through the
period...although some storms could linger into the overnight
tonight. For Tuesday...have kept pops in the 40 to 50 percent
range. For tomorrow night have dried out the far north after
06z...but left low pops for the remainder of the area. No big
changes to temperatures in the short term.

41

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

SNELSON

Still appears area will see only slow shift to NW flow aloft this
week with broad upper ridge building over the western and central
CONUS and trough over the midwest states. By the weekend, however,
medium range guidance now showing high amplitude trough digging SSE
into the eastern states on Saturday. While we may not see much
cooler temps, could see slightly drier air at sfc and aloft, though
chc of storms will continue with cold air aloft and stronger mid
level flow. Until then, will continue to see mostly diurnally-driven
afternoon and evening convection though with well above average PW,
could also see isolated overnight activity as well. As flow aloft
eventually becomes WNW, could see some development of MCS though not
seeing confirmation of this in model QPF.

Heat indices should remain 95 to 101, which is below advisory
threshold, through the extended though will continue to monitor.
Tropical activity thankfully still not seen in model progs or NHC
outlooks.

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018/

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

Medium-range models continue to show an amplifying upper-level
pattern developing through the majority of the extended forecast
period. Frontal boundary settling into the southern portion of the
forecast area as we begin the period concentrates best POPs across
the southern half of the area mid-week. Strong short wave and
associated surface front should increase POPs areawide as we head
into the weekend. With moderate mid-level winds associated with this
system, combined with enhanced forcing and at least moderate
instability, we will need to keep an eye on the potential for an
increased severe thunderstorms threat. Noticeable divergence between
the GFS and the ECMWF for the latter portion of the period, but I
have kept at least chance POPs through the end of this forecast
cycle.

20



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger for the
next few hours, but should diminish in coverage by 10pm. Do expect
IFR cigs to develop again overnight. If persistence holds, a brief
period of VLIFR is possible right around 12z. Synoptic winds
shouldremain on the west side.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  72  90 /  50  50  40  30
Atlanta         75  90  73  90 /  50  50  40  30
Blairsville     67  85  65  85 /  50  50  30  20
Cartersville    72  90  71  90 /  50  50  40  30
Columbus        75  91  75  92 /  50  50  50  50
Gainesville     71  89  71  89 /  50  50  40  30
Macon           74  92  73  91 /  50  50  40  50
Rome            73  91  70  91 /  40  50  40  20
Peachtree City  72  90  72  91 /  50  50  40  40
Vidalia         74  91  74  90 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...41


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