753
FXUS62 KFFC 172355
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
655 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026


...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 649 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

 - Will need to monitor overnight for possible Dense Fog Advisory
   issuance.

 - Much above average to near-record highs forecast for Thu and
   Fri.

 - Rain chances will gradually increase after Wednesday, with widespread
   rain showers and a few storms on Friday and Saturday.

 - Dry conditions and much cooler temperatures move in late Sunday
   through early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Surface ridge off the Carolina coast today will continue
to shift east over the short term such that by late tonight
the southeasterly wind will shift to a southwest wind. Warm air
advection and dewpoints will respond accordingly with dpts surging
into the 50s on Wednesday and upper 50s to low 60s by Thursday.
MaxTs will be held back some on Wednesday by both a low cloud
deck in the AM and a thicker mid and upper level cloud deck in the
afternoon. Can`t rule out a stray shower across central GA but it
would be very isolated. NBM pops are low however hi res model run
reflectivity fields suggest a few showers could be present. Given
the WAA into the retreating cooler airmass...wouldn`t be
surprised by some early AM fog...particularly from I20 south into
middle GA where the dpts will be rising first. RH values fcst to
be 95 to 100 pct so have included fog with this package and will
need to monitor overnight for possible dense fog advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 225 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Return:

Moisture will start to increase across Georgia on Thursday as a
long fetch of southwest flow sets up over the region in between
broad troughing over the west-central US and ridging over the
Caribbean. A strong shortwave and associated surface low will
eject out of the Rockies across the Central Plains throughout the
day, strengthening the warm air advection regime downstream over
the Southeast US. For North and Central GA, this will only lead
to a 25-30% chance of pop-up rain showers despite the increased
moisture, as forcing will be limited with the low being so
distant. Late Thursday through Friday, the low will strengthen
over the Great Lakes and send a frontal boundary across the TN
Valley into Georgia where it stalls out. This will provide plenty
of forcing and combine with the moisture pooled over the area to
support widespread showers (60-80% chance) and a few
thunderstorms where some instability can develop. On Saturday,
model guidance continues to have a decent amount of spread but is
generally showing another shortwave sliding across the lower
Midwest into the TN Valley. With moisture still pooled over the
area within southwest flow this would reinvigorate convection
during the day, supporting another round of widespread showers
and thunderstorms. Depending on the track, strength, and speed of
this shortwave, we could have enough instability and shear to
support strong to severe thunderstorms over the area. Confidence
in whether or not there will be a severe threat will increase in
the coming days. Model guidance does continue to show good
agreement on another shortwave and associated cold front quickly
racing in late Saturday into early Sunday, with dry air pushing
in behind it through early next week.

Temperature Roller Coaster:

Much warmer than normal temperatures will continue through Friday
as a very warm airmass gets brought into the region within deep
southwest flow. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the mid
to upper 70s, with some low 80s in central GA. Low temperatures
will only fall as low as the dewpoints, which will be in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Both of these high and low temperature
ranges are 15-20 degrees warmer than normal for this time of
year. One thing that could hinder places from getting to that
upper 70s to low 80s range will be gradually increasing cloud
cover and rain chances, especially on Friday. Temperatures cool a
bit on Saturday due to the consistent cloud cover and widespread
rain showers, with highs in the 60s in north GA and 70s in
central GA. A cold front moving through on Sunday will make
temperatures come crashing down, with lows Sunday night into
Monday morning likely in the mid to upper 20s across much of the
area. Cool temperatures will linger through early to mid week,
with overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s and highs in the 40s
and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Conds initially VFR will gradually deteriorate overnight, to BKN
to OVC MVFR by 06-07Z, and with chcs for BKN-OVC IFR from 09-15Z.
Low cigs may be accompanied by MVFR vsbys in BR. Lifting and
scattering unlikely until late pd. Winds nearly due S at 5-7kts
will shift to the SE by 06Z, increasing to 5-10kts with ocnl gusts
to 20kts during the aftn.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence overnight/AM ceiling progression.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          49  69  57  75 /   0   0  10  30
Atlanta         52  69  58  75 /   0   0  20  30
Blairsville     46  63  53  69 /   0  10  30  40
Cartersville    51  70  58  77 /   0   0  20  30
Columbus        51  72  58  80 /   0   0  20  40
Gainesville     49  67  58  73 /   0   0  20  30
Macon           50  72  58  79 /   0   0  10  40
Rome            55  72  60  80 /   0  10  20  20
Peachtree City  50  69  57  77 /   0   0  20  30
Vidalia         52  76  58  80 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...96