Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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604
FXUS62 KFFC 240558
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1245 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019


.UPDATE...

Near term update was mainly to adjust temperature trend with
frontal passage and a bit quicker diminishing pop trend from the
NW for late evening into early morning. Also thermal profiles
suggest less of a light wintry mix potential in the far north than
before on the very heal of the moisture axis so adjusted to only a
slight chance of light snow or sleet in some of the higher
elevations with no accumulations. Still cannot rule out a few
strong to isolated severe in central GA given the strong shear,
though the elevated instability axis remains primarily south of
the CWA and barely nosing in just SE of Columbus at the time of
this discussion. Some strong convective winds could occur along
the main front/line or possibly a brief spin-up tornado though
chance remains low over the next few hours. Overall gradient winds
have laxed some so may be expiring the Wind Advisory after the
next few hours as well. Flash Flood Watch continues in the north
and some local creeks/rivers have responded so far with expected
minor flooding. Previous discussion follows...

Baker

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
High pressure over the area is weakening as frontal system moves in
across the region. looks like the front has moves into western AL
and making its way east. It should push into NW GA by 21-23z this
evening and continue moving east through tonight. Expecting showers
to increase from west to east over the next few hours and continue
across the state over night. By 12z Thursday...the frontal boundary
should be just east of our CWA with only a few lingering showers
remaining over eastern GA. With this rain moving through tonight
there will be an increased chance of flooding mainly across N GA
where the larger amounts are expected. Could see 1 to 3 inches of
accumulations for areas North of a Rome to Canton to Cleveland line.
Have issued a flood watch for those areas through 12z Thu morning.
Gusty winds are also an issue with this system and have been seeing
winds gusting into the 30-35kt rage across the area. These wind
speeds are expected to stay elevated through tonight. With the
increased rain on top of the already saturated soils...could see a
tree or two fall tonight. We have a wind advisory going and are
extending it to include more of central GA and taking it through 06z
Thu.

Once this system exits the area tomorrow morning will see clearing
skies and cooler temps as a cooler airmass moves in. High temps Thu
will stay mainly in the 40s and 50s with lows Thu night in the 20s
and 30s.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
High pressure and fair weather will be the rule for much of the long
term forecast period. However, a sharp cold front and colder
temperatures are expected by the end of the week. This system will
bring some potential for wintry weather across a good portion of the
CWFA.

Dry conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures are
expected through the first half of the weekend. Both the ECMWF and
GFS are progging a shortwave and weak frontal boundary to impact far
northern GA by late Sunday into early Monday. Neither model is
producing much precip with this system, but the ECMWF is slightly
wetter and further south with the shortwave energy.

The next system is expected to impact the CWFA Tuesday in the form
of a sharp cold front. Much colder air is anticipated on the back
side of this boundary, and there is some potential for wintry
weather before all of the low level moisture clears out. Kept the p-
type as ra/sn as it it way to early to nail down specifics. For now,
the chances for precip remain low, but will have to continue
monitoring.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update... MVFR ceilings lingering with some areas of IFR.
Gradual improvement after 12z with scattering after 18z. Rain ending
across the taf sites by 12z. Winds will become northwest with some
gusts after 08z and continue into the afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on ceilings this morning.
High on all else.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          45  49  30  47 / 100  10   5   0
Atlanta         39  45  30  43 / 100  10   5   5
Blairsville     33  40  25  37 / 100  20   5   0
Cartersville    37  44  28  40 / 100  10   5   0
Columbus        43  50  33  50 / 100  10   0   0
Gainesville     39  44  29  43 / 100  10   5   0
Macon           50  53  32  51 / 100  10   0   0
Rome            35  44  28  40 / 100  10   5   0
Peachtree City  40  47  30  45 / 100  10   5   0
Vidalia         56  60  36  54 / 100  30   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for the following zones:
Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...
Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...Cherokee...
Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...Dade...
Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...
Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...Gordon...Greene...
Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...
Houston...Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...
Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...Macon...Madison...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...
North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...
Pickens...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...
South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Towns...Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...
Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...White...
Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM EST Thursday for the following
zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...Dade...Dawson...
Fannin...Floyd...Gilmer...Gordon...Lumpkin...Murray...Pickens...
Towns...Union...Walker...White...Whitfield.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Baker



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