893
FXUS62 KFFC 260708
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
308 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

The line of thunderstorms continues to move to the southeast, into
an area which has received plenty of destabilizing sunshine. MUCAPE
across the southern CWA hangs around 2000 to 3000 J/KG. However
limited forcing outside the cold pool and little to no shear mean
thunderstorms will likely continue to pulse up and fall along the
cold pool. Conditions behind the line are significantly more stable
with MUCAPE values of ~1000 and over 250 CIN. Given the limited time
for reheating, have left very low PoPs for the possibility of an
isolated thunderstorm or shower later this afternoon across the
region. Winds overnight die out with ample surface moisture. This
may mean some patchy fog overnight across North and Western GA.

Small PoPs return across Northeast GA tomorrow morning into early
tomorrow afternoon with several CAMs indicating a potential MCS
through Eastern TN into the Carolinas which may clip the area.
Impacts for the CWA from this should be low, though some
precipitation and some thunder is possible.

Our next chance for thunderstorms comes Monday with a more energetic
front. This system could have some stronger to severe thunderstorms.
GEFs ensemble indicated 60 to 80% probs of CAPE greater than 2000
J/KG and 40 to 50 kts of shear. This currently looks like more of a
wind threat than anything although. We will continue to watch this
as models initialize with a better solution of our current system.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Active weather is still expected for the first part of next week.

A cold front is expected to move through the CWA later Monday into
Tuesday. The higher res models are producing an MCS out ahead of the
main frontal boundary early on Monday. Since the models continue to
struggle with the MCS/MCV/shortwave systems, timing and coverage of
storms will likely have to be adjusted later forecast cycles. The
HRRR has been better lately with trends further out in the forecast
cycle than within the first 12 hours.

Fairly quiet weather anticipated for the remainder of the week. No
major changes needed.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR to start TAF period. Could see some periods of patchy low cigs
during the morning hours that could be MVFR or even IFR, generally
in the 10Z-14Z time frame. FEW to SCT cu field expected during the
afternoon. Low chance of seeing an afternoon storm at metro TAF
sites, but not high enough to warrant PROB30 mention at this time.
Winds will be from the SW 5-10 kts through most of period. Lower
cigs and convection may be approaching airport tomorrow morning at
very end of TAF period - expect mention in next TAF issuance.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence morning low cigs, high all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  85  65  87 /  20  40  20   0
Atlanta         71  86  67  87 /  20  40  20   0
Blairsville     64  80  59  79 /  50  60  10   0
Cartersville    68  87  63  86 /  40  60  20   0
Columbus        72  88  69  90 /  10  40  30  10
Gainesville     70  83  65  85 /  30  50  10   0
Macon           70  89  68  90 /  10  40  30  10
Rome            70  87  64  87 /  50  60  10   0
Peachtree City  70  86  65  88 /  20  40  20  10
Vidalia         72  93  72  91 /  10  40  50  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Lusk