085
FXUS62 KFFC 232348
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
748 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Key Messages:

  - Some afternoon storms across northern GA this afternoon. Severe
    weather is not anticipated.

  - May break record high at Atlanta today and possibly tomorrow.
    Highs will be in the 90s across much all of north and central
    Georgia.

  - Chance of storms tomorrow especially into the overnight as a
    boundary approaches the area. Some of these could be strong or
    severe, especially in northern and northeastern Georgia.

Forecast Discussion:

Notable CAD/wedge pushed into the northeastern portion of the state
this morning before stalling out. Satellite shows this beautifully,
with vigorous cumulus field across the rest of the state while areas
from Athens northeastward into the Carolinas are void. Mountains
have already aided convection in popping in those areas, but signs
of glaciation are taking place in parts of east central Georgia
where a few showers and storms could join the party. Isolated to
scattered convection expected through the evening across all of
north and central Georgia, quickly dissipating with sunset.
Parameter space is currently not to impressive in the state. While
MLCAPE has increased this afternoon to around 1000-1500 J/kg and
some effective bulk shear is present, mid level lapse rates are
absolutely abysmal. Not expecting anything too spicy (severe),
but won`t rule out a storm getting going strong, especially off
the mountain convergence.

The next story will be temps, where our somewhat stagnant airmass
has been allowed to repeatedly modify over the past several days and
heat up. We`ve been able to achieve 90s areawide today, and that
should continue tomorrow. Record highs at ATL will be in jeopardy
once again. Today`s record is 94 degrees, and we`ve already
achieved 93 as of this posting with peak heating approaching.
Tomorrow`s in 93, though could have some cloud cover that impacts
our ability to achieve this based on some weather upstream.

Tomorrow looks like more of the same with some afternoon convection
chances. We may be a bit more limited as previously mentioned thanks
to some afternoon cloud cover. The real show looks like it may
happen later into the evening and possibly overnight as a weak
boundary/front approaches the area. Trough is expected to dig in and
cut off to the east. This trough is going to be a major player with
the upcoming tropical system, but may help give us an earlier show
with some storms that could have some upper level support with them.
Time of day will be helping us here, but models do indicated we may
still have some surface based instability around. Marginal Risk for
severe weather is in place across far north Georgia, with damaging
winds being the primary threat.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

At a glance:

-Something wicked this way comes...

-Long term forecast will be dominated by what Potential Tropical
Cyclone Nine does.

ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER REGARDING POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE

Nothing about what is setting up in the Gulf is something we
typically like to see for this time of year. As of writing this, the
National Hurricane Center has started making headlines for Potential
Tropical Storm nine which is currently lurking just off the Yucatan
Peninsula. Given the track of the storm and the hot tub that is the
gulf of Mexico, the Hurricane center is already confident that this
storm will likely become a Hurricane by Wednesday.

The long term forecast picks up on Wednesday afternoon. It leads off
with a weak low pressure out of the northwest that is dissipating
and is set to leave a stationary front over the northern part of the
CWA. Currently the NHC is tracking the storm to make landfall
sometime late on Thursday and push through the CWA during the early
morning on Friday and through the day. After that, it`s interaction
with the stationary front will be the big question. The NHC has the
track of the storm heading off the the northwest, keeping it in our
CWA for nearly it`s entire lifetime.

The problem now, is that the forecast is subject to change pretty
drastically over the next couple of days. QPF and wind field will
largely depend on how nasty this thing wants to become. As of right
now the WPC has widespread 3 inches across the entire state. This is
a respectable first guess as a base of what`s to come. The storm
itself will likely drop significantly more in isolated areas where
the heavies bands set up. As far as the wind field goes, widespread
wind gusts exceeding 35 mph are expected to begin Thursday afternoon
across all of the CWA although those gusts will likely arrive
Thursday morning across portions of the southern part of the CWA.

The TC tornado threat will largely depend on the track of the storm.
It will be greatest if the eye tracks further to the west. We`ll be
keeping an eye on any subtle shifts in the track to get a better
idea of where that front right quadrant is most likely to make
landfall.

By Saturday, most models have it dissipating over the southern
midwest after fusing with another upper level cutoff low which
should help to keep temperatures on the pleasant side of the 70s
with some lingering precip around, especially in the afternoons.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Patchy fog or IFR/LIFR conditions (ceilings 200-800 ft AGL) may
occur in the higher terrain of northeast Georgia between 06Z and
13Z Tuesday. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through 06Z
Wednesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur between
18Z Tuesday and 06Z Wednesday, mainly in north Georgia. Light and
variable winds tonight will give way to southwest/west winds (280
to 180 degrees at 3 to 10 kt) between 15Z Tuesday and 06Z
Wednesday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Moderate overall confidence in the KATL TAF.
High confidence in the ceiling, visibility and winds outlook.
Moderate confidence in the precipitation forecast after 18Z
Tuesday, due to a small chance (>15%) for a rain shower.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  91  68  83 /  20  20  30  40
Atlanta         72  93  71  82 /  10  10  30  60
Blairsville     64  84  63  74 /  20  40  60  80
Cartersville    69  93  67  81 /  10  20  40  80
Columbus        73  93  72  85 /   0   0  20  60
Gainesville     69  90  68  79 /  20  20  40  60
Macon           72  93  70  87 /  10  10   0  30
Rome            69  93  67  80 /  10  20  60  90
Peachtree City  70  91  68  82 /   0  10  20  60
Vidalia         72  93  70  89 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Albright