Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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488 FXUS62 KFFC 262159 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 559 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 546 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Hurricane Helene is now a major hurricane and positioned due south of the Big Bend region of Florida. Helene is an expansive system with impacts expected to occur well away from the storm center. The storm will continue to accelerate northward before making landfall tonight. Rain on the north side of Helene continues to spread northward across the forecast area. With steady rainfall and saturated soils from yesterday`s rain, a couple of flash flood warnings have already been issued near and south of the Atlanta metro area. As the center of the storm draws closer, rainfall rates are forecast to increase from south to north overnight into Friday. With additional rainfall amounts forecast to range from 4-8 inches with localized amounts over 10 inches over a wide swath from west- central Georgia to far northeast Georgia, it will be likely to see widespread flash flooding with some areas experiencing significant flash flooding and moderate to major river flooding. The existing Hurricane Warning has been expanded north and east to include Butts, Jasper, Jones, Laurens, Pike, Spalding, Wheeler, and Wilkinson counties. The Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect across the remainder of north and central Georgia. Tropical storm and hurricane force wind gusts, potentially exceeding 80 mph, are expected to begin across the southern portion of the forecast area tonight, then quickly spread north overnight into Friday morning. Hurricane Force wind gusts will be possible for some locations including the Atlanta Metro extending eastward towards Athens and in the higher terrain of the northeast Georgia mountains. Outside of these locations, Tropical Storm force wind gusts are expected all the way up to the border with Tennessee and North Carolina. Given the saturated soils, widespread downing of trees and significant power outages are expected. Prepare for an extended period of power loss! King/KAB && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 No major changes have been made to the forecast other than tweaks to the wind forecast based on the latest NHC Helene track. Hurricane Helene continues to intensify over the E Gulf of Mexico, with expected landfall around the FL Big Bend area this evening. Helene will be moving quickly N after she makes landfall, with a potentially large area under the threat of hurricane or tropical storm force winds overnight tonight into Friday morning. The Predecessor Rain Event from Wednesday saturated soils across much of the area, so additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches across much of the area are likely. Locally higher amounts are possible, particularly in the more persistent, training rain bands and over the NE terrain. WPC has much of the area under a high excessive rainfall risk. The area-wide Flood Watch remains in effect. The risk of tornadoes continues, mainly along and to the E of Helene`s path. We`ve already seen rotating cells over the SE corner of the County Warning Area (CWA). That area is also closer to some sizable breaks in the overcast across the JAX CWA and more unstable air. However, even low CAPE values will support isolated tornadoes. SPC issued a Tornado Watch earlier which remains valid until this evening. We have opted to expand this watch a bit farther to the W. Additional expansions are possible, followed by a possible new watch later. Preparations for strong winds and additional heavy rainfall should be rushed to completion before sunset today! /SEC && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Fortunately, much quieter conditions are expected next week in the wake of Helene. Aside from ongoing flooding concerns on rivers and larger waterways, only minimal PoPs are included in far north Georgia around the lingering cutoff low through the weekend. The remainder of the long term period next week currently looks dry. The cutoff low finally lifts northeastward and weak northwest flow aloft builds into the region before weak ridging builds eastward by late week. Temperatures will be largely near seasonal averages. RW && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 153 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Not too much change to previous forecast besides bringing in improving conditions at the end of the period as Helene continues to lift N. Until that time, IFR to LIFR conditions will be prevalent with the lowest vsbys in tropical rainbands. Winds will steadily increase through the evening with maximum wind gusts between midnight and daybreak at most locations. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium for all elements. SEC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 67 76 62 79 / 100 40 10 10 Atlanta 66 74 63 77 / 100 40 10 10 Blairsville 62 71 58 68 / 100 100 30 50 Cartersville 64 75 63 77 / 100 70 20 20 Columbus 66 79 63 82 / 100 10 0 10 Gainesville 67 74 63 75 / 100 60 20 20 Macon 68 79 63 82 / 100 10 0 0 Rome 66 75 63 76 / 100 80 30 30 Peachtree City 64 75 61 78 / 100 30 10 10 Vidalia 72 83 65 85 / 100 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for GAZ001>009-011>016- 019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113. Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027- 030>039-041>055-057-060>062-066-067-073>076-078-085-086-098-112- 113. Hurricane Warning for GAZ056-058-059-068>072-079>084-089>097- 102>111. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...SEC