Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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021 FXUS62 KFFC 091229 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 829 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 343 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A weak frontal boundary will sag southward across the CWA later today. Main forecast challenge through the short term period will be the timing of any convection. Large MCS currently across the Mid Mississippi River valley will continue to dive SE early this morning. The hi-res models do have this cluster of storms weakening as it moves further SE this morning. However, do think additional convection will likely fire along it`s old cold pool or in association with a mid level disturbance later this afternoon. Models continue to keep the main convective cluster with this secondary system north of the CWA, with a few isold/sct storms making it just south of the GA/TN/NC border. Do think any semi-organized convection that has the best chances of impacting a larger portion of the CWA will be along or just ahead of the sagging frontal boundary. This front is currently still well to the NW of the CWA, stretching from the southern Great Lakes back through central MO and northern OK. Any mid level shortwave/MCV riding this boundary later this evening will have the potential to produce convection. Currently, the models have scattered storms developing right around 00Z and lingering into the overnight hours. Of course, any development of storms is highly dependent upon the track of early MCS development upstream. Have tried to best capture the convective trends according to the hi-res models trends, but adjustments to timing and coverage will have to be made at a later time...especially to account for any potential MCS activity. The weak front is expected to make it just to the south of the CWA by late Monday. Isold/sct convection will likely focus along this boundary through through the day on Monday. There will be plenty of instability available for thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Lapse rates remain fairly marginal. A few strong storms are likely through the period, with isolated severe storms possible (mainly this afternoon). Primary severe hazards would be damaging wind gusts. Lapse rates indicate that hail will be also be possible. Dewpoints in the lower to middle 50s will settle across much of the CWA behind the front, mainly north of MCN to CSG. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 343 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The trough continues to move off the east coast Tuesday with the front well to the south. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s, however with PWATs less than 0.8" the air will feel nice and dry. This only lasts through Wednesday morning, when moisture begins to surge out of The Gulf. The big question mark will be the timing, intensity, and location of the moisture plume and developing gulf low. Deep flow out of the tropics on the eastern side of the sfc low will be the main driver for moisture transport, and any moisture plume could be narrow and intense. Looking at integrated vapor transport, values along the gulf coast look more in line with a west coast atmospheric river than a generic surface low. Weak mid and upper level support will help to keep the worst of the precipitation near the coast. PoPs will remain in the area essentially from Wednesday through the end of the longterm outlook. Though, given PWATs as high as 2.25 to 2.75 inches, precipitation across the southern CWA could be heavy at times through the end of the long term outlook. One caveat to this is the potential for dry air wedging into North and Central GA with NE flow as the sfc low drifts northward. This too is highly dependent on the low track and is currently only depicted in the GFS. Otherwise, conditions will most likely be wet, tropical, and muggy through much of the longterm outlook, so enjoy the nicer conditions on Tuesday while you can. SM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 753 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conditions expected thru ~05Z after which time SHRA/TSRA with bkn025 cigs and 3-5SM vsby from heavy rain may be moving thru north Georgia airports including KATL and KAHN. Less chance for these storms to make it to middle Georgia airports overnight. Sfc winds WNW 10-12kts with some gusts to 22kts 17-23Z today, decreasing overnight. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium confidence on SHRA/TSRA likelihood and timing. High confidence on all other elements. SNELSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 68 84 61 86 / 30 30 10 10 Atlanta 70 84 62 86 / 30 30 10 10 Blairsville 60 76 53 79 / 30 20 10 10 Cartersville 65 82 58 85 / 30 20 10 10 Columbus 73 89 67 89 / 10 20 10 10 Gainesville 67 81 60 83 / 30 20 10 10 Macon 73 88 65 89 / 10 20 20 10 Rome 67 84 59 85 / 30 20 0 0 Peachtree City 68 84 61 86 / 30 30 10 10 Vidalia 75 91 69 91 / 10 30 40 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON LONG TERM....SM AVIATION...SNELSON