Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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175 FXUS62 KFFC 160710 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 310 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Highlights: -Above normal temperatures continue today and on Monday. -Isolated to scattered storms possible this afternoon and early evening. Isolated storms possible again Monday afternoon. Midlevel ridging parked over the Southeast and surface high pressure across the northeast extending southward will keep us warm and toasty through Monday. Additionally, latest MSAS analysis maintains a weak boundary draped across North GA. This afternoon, isolated to scattered storms will be possible. Storms and increasing cloud coverage will be aided by the surface boundary still present and isentropic lift associated with wedging of high pressure. While severe weather is not expected, any storms that form and collapse may produce a damaging wind gust. Coverage of showers and storms are slightly higher across northeast GA as terrain may aid in further development. Isolated storms will be possible again Monday afternoon, though coverage looks to be slightly less than today. Temperatures today are forecast to climb into the mid 90s, with portions of south-central GA (Columbus to Macon southward) approaching the upper 90s. Areas in the northeast GA mountains will see temperatures in the 80s both today and on Monday. Similar to yesterday, lower afternoon relative humidity (30-45%) look to keep heat index values below Heat Advisory Criteria (heat indices greater or equal to 105) today. Currently, heat indices are forecast to range from 95 to 102F. While heat headlines are not currently in effect please exercise caution if outdoors today. Despite `lower` amounts of moisture leading to extreme heat, the present conditions are enough to cause heat-related illness particularly to vulnerable populations (i.e. the elderly, children, pets, and those w/o air conditioning). Be proactive and check in on friends, family and neighbors -- Beat the Heat! 07 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Key Messages: - Dry weather and slightly above average temperatures are expected Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. - Rain chances should be on the rise late this week as tropical moisture filters back into Georgia. Mid-Week Doldrums: The core of an upper level ridge should shift towards the Mid- Atlantic by Tuesday. Easterly flow around the underside of the ridge should drive an airmass with lower precipitable water values into Georgia. Between Tuesday and Thursday guidance from the GEFS and EPS favors (high confidence) precipitable water values near 1 inch across the state. Climatologically precipitable water values of this magnitude would fall between the 10th and 25th percentile for mid June. When combined with surface dewpoints that are forecast to be in the upper 50s or lower 60s, and mid-level lapse rates in the 4.5 to 5.5 C/km range, the odds of convection appear minimal between Tuesday and Thursday. Thus or forecast favor dry weather in northern and central Georgia all three days. The northeast shift in the upper level ridge during this period will allow our temperatures to moderate, at the expense of those in the Northeast who will see their readings rise. Forecast highs for northern and central Georgia are in the 88 to 93 degree range Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Highs in this range are slightly above (2 to 5 degree) average for the middle of June. Friday into the Weekend: As we transition into next weekend the forecast for Georgia gets more challenging and uncertain. Ensemble guidance (GEFS and EPS) favors a gradual weakening and southward shift in the upper level ridge in response to a trough moving through the eastern Canadian provinces. Meanwhile our eyes are pointed toward the tropics where an easterly wave may be tracking across the Bahamas or Florida. The National Hurricane Center added a 20% area to their Tropical Weather Outlook yesterday evening to account for potential tropical development with this feature. From a Georgia perspective this wave bears monitoring, but it doesn`t pose a significant threat at this time. Amongst all the uncertainty in the forecast for the end of the week, the precipitable water forecast stands out as a higher confidence element. All of the EPS and GEFS members have rising precipitable water values later this week and both ensemble means are near 1.5 inches by Saturday. This rise is available moisture suggests a return to diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity. Thus our forecast allows afternoon storm changes to rise into the 20 to 40 percent range by Saturday. Albright && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period. Still some lingering shra out there but not expected to bring impacts to any terminal. Winds remain light and largely variable overnight due to a weak boundary draped across North GA and sfc high to the north. TSRA possible on Sunday afternoon as early as 18z -- will likely introduce a TEMPO with the next TAF issuance. Outflows from any storms that do develop may result in a brief period of VRB/erratic winds. Winds will pick up around 14z at 4 to 9kts and will be out of the SE. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Low to medium confidence on wind direction overnight. Medium confidence on timing of thunder Sunday afternoon. High confidence on remaining elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 94 72 91 67 / 30 30 10 0 Atlanta 95 74 92 71 / 30 20 20 0 Blairsville 87 67 85 65 / 40 30 30 0 Cartersville 95 73 93 71 / 30 20 20 0 Columbus 98 74 95 72 / 20 20 20 0 Gainesville 91 72 89 69 / 30 20 20 0 Macon 97 72 94 69 / 20 20 10 0 Rome 96 74 94 72 / 30 20 20 0 Peachtree City 96 72 93 69 / 30 20 10 0 Vidalia 96 73 93 71 / 20 20 20 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....Albright AVIATION...07