124
FXUS62 KFFC 250825
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
425 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For today and the better part of the day Wednesday, north and
central Georgia will be situated under a relative lull in our
presiding flow pattern, with exiting troughing resulting in weakly
northwesterly flow at the mid-levels. Frontal progression has
stalled out along/just south of the CWA border in south central
Georgia, and with even drier air having since moved in across the
area, expect any chances for afternoon thunderstorms today to be
focused in our far southeastern tier -- in closest proximity to
residual frontal forcing. Unhampered warming under sunny skies will
allow temperatures to rebound into the upper-90s areawide (apart
from northeast Georgia, relegated to the mid-80s to near 90), with
the lower triple digits possible once again for areas along and
south of a line extending from Columbus to Macon. What continues to
be our saving grace from truly oppressive heat will be strong mixing
and climatologically-low afternoon dewpoints (in the upper-50s to
lower-60s; between the 10th and 25th percentile per SPC`s Sounding
Climatology). As a result, peak afternoon heat index values will be
within a degree or two of actual temperatures, and perhaps even
slightly "cooler" than actual highs this afternoon. Lows will fall
into the upper-60s to lower-70s.

Beginning midday Wednesday, a shortwave rounding the base of a
broader mid-level trough lifting across the Great Lakes will
approach from the northwest. Moisture will begin to gradually
rebound ahead of it, resulting in pockets of (very) slightly higher
humidity through the afternoon, and increased -- but still low-end
(15-25%) -- chances for isolated thunderstorms. With highs once
again forecast to surge into the upper-90s to lower-100s, will need
to keep a close eye on our heat index values across our far
southeastern tier, as they may approach or exceed Heat Advisory
criteria.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

As the extended period begins on Wednesday night, a longwave trough
will be extending from the eastern Great Lakes into the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be advancing into north Georgia ahead of this trough and an
associated frontal boundary. Precip chances will spread
southeastward overnight and into Thursday as the weakening frontal
boundary sinks southward through the forecast area. Rain chances
will be highest in the afternoon, when temperatures ranging from the
low 90s in west Georgia to the upper 90s in east-central Georgia and
in the upper 60s to low 70s will combine for strong instability.
This instability will lend itself for diurnal enhancement of showers
and thunderstorms, and thus PoPs are forecast to range from 40-60%
in the afternoon. The frontal boundary is anticipated to stall and
wash out by the afternoon, so there will be little in the way of
shear for the afternoon storms to work with. While the threat for
organized severe weather will be low, a few storms may nonetheless
become strong and capable of producing frequent lightning, locally
heavy rain, and gusty winds.

Southerly low-level flow will likely return to the area Friday into
Saturday, which will promote increasing dewpoints, hot temperatures,
and diurnally-driven afternoon thunderstorms through the weekend.
It will be important to keep an eye on temperatures through the
later parts of the week into the weekend. Even with trending high
temperatures down slightly to account for convective development,
highs are still forecast to range from between 4-8 degrees above
average for late June. Highs are mainly forecast to be in the mid to
upper 90s from Friday through the end of the period, and heat
indices are forecast to creep up into the triple digits in many
locations, particularly in the southern half of the forecast
area. Of particular interest will be some locations in central
Georgia, which could see heat index values exceeding 105 this
weekend, in which case Fire Danger Statements would be warranted.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR and primarily SKC conditions to continue. FEW cigs at 25kft
will trickle back in after 20-21Z. Winds will be out of the NE/ENE
at 7kts or less through this afternoon, but may become VRB at
times when speeds drop below 4kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          97  71  98  74 /   0   0  10  20
Atlanta         97  74  99  76 /   0   0  10  20
Blairsville     90  67  91  67 /   0   0  20  30
Cartersville    97  70  99  71 /   0   0  10  30
Columbus       101  73 101  75 /   0   0  20  20
Gainesville     94  71  96  74 /   0   0  10  20
Macon          100  71 101  74 /   0   0  20  10
Rome            98  69  99  74 /   0   0  20  30
Peachtree City  98  71  99  72 /   0   0  10  20
Vidalia        102  74 100  76 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...96