Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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939 FXUS63 KFGF 261507 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1007 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind Advisory for northern Red River valley for this afternoon for sustained south winds up to 30 mph and gusts over 40 mph. - Near critical fire weather conditions due to wind and low RH for much of eastern ND. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1004 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Latest morning 12Z guidance still illustrates very similar evolution today regarding temperatures, wind, and dew points. Will continue to message dry, warm, and gusty winds contributing to near critical fire weather conditions expected by this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Skies clear across the area. Forecast in good shape and no changes. South winds will increase as expected and continued focus on the north valley for highest winds today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...Synopsis... 500 mb ridge in place today then ridge gets pushed east and 500 mb flow becomes more zonal Friday into next week but heights remain higher than climatologically normal with main upper level jet well north of the border. This will generally mean continued above normal temps, though not as warm as today, and mainly dry weather. Only exception will be a brief cool down Tuesday behind a cold front as temps may drop to a few degrees below normal. ...Today... 500 mb ridge will be over the area today with peak 925/850 mb temps into south central into eastern ND this aftn. Gusty south-southeast winds today, with 45 kts at 925 mb over the far north valley and 50kts in Winnipeg area. This will not all mix down today, but MOS guidance indicates sustained winds in the 25-28 kt range this aftn for HCO and GFK and surrounding areas in the north Red River valley and that does seem reasonable and follows along climatology in these situations. Temperatures out performed NBM by several degrees Wednesday but winds were more west or southwest. Today a more south-southeast wind which typically isnt as a warm, but such warm air aloft and knowing NBM temps have been a bit cool of late suggests going on the higher side of NBM closer to 75 percentile, esp in the valley and eastern ND. With high temps in the 80s and keeping dew pts a bit lower than model blend guidance due to mixing in the lowest layers gives min RH values in the upper 20s to low 30s percent range across southeast and east central ND into northwest MN. Will continue mentioning near critical fire weather conditions in SE into east central ND. Hold off in MN due to as winds in lowest RH areas not quite as strong. In E ND there is a 20 percent chance of red flag conditions if RH can drop lower. ...Beyond Today... Weak cold front moves through tonight, dry, with minimal clouds. Sunny on Friday with a light northwest wind and temps cooler than today, but still a good 5-10 degrees or more above normal. Warmer air will return northward as heights rise aloft to the northwest est of the remains of Helene. So weekend looks warm and dry. Light winds on Saturday but south winds gusting 25 mph on Sunday with RH values back into the low-mid 30s. Brief colder air shot early next week, but differences exist on how much cooling. Overall consensus is to have cooling brief and not quite a good setup for frost. If any frost would be possible it would be Tuesday night in NW MN. But using NBM chances for temps Tues night below 36 are in the 15-25 pct range. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Skies clear thru the period. South winds increasing today and becoming gusty with gusts 30 kts or higher DVL and GFK TAF sites. Winds diminishing and turning west tonight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ007-008-016- 026-027-029-030-054. MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-004-007. && $$ UPDATE...CJ/Riddle DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Riddle