Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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064 FXUS63 KFGF 200333 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1033 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The probability for weather impacts is low over the next 7 days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Showers have ended across the area with a deck of stratus moving into the Devils Lake Basin. Noticing some stronger winds with this cloud bank likely owing to increased cold air advection under the low to the north so nudged winds a tad higher in the next few hours trying to follow the low as it ticks east. Otherwise winds should calm by sunrise with lows in the 50s for most though could see a few spots dip into the 40s in Towner and Cavalier counties UPDATE Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Increased pops slightly north of HWY 2 to better reflect current coverage as the upper low slides by to our north with diminished chances after 10 pm due to the loss of heating and any MUCAPE. Thunder will remain a rare occurrence due to cloud depths but still a low maybe 10% chance with any given cell the next few hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...Synopsis... A mid/upper low is centered over southern Manitoba, with drier BL conditions and cooler temperatures aloft already in place behind a cold front (now to the east). Diurnal showers/sprinkles are still rotating into northeast ND at the base of this upper low due to the cold pool/low level lapse rates, but should quickly dissipate with sunset/decoupling in the low levels. Weak shortwave ridging should transition over the Northern Plains Friday with another mid/upper low passing thorugh southern Canada Friday night into Saturday. The associated cold front as trough passage is shown to support a period of showers late Friday evening into Saturday morning, with a chance for light rain across the region. Impacts should be minimal with the probability for greater than 0.1" less than 20% most locations. Seasonably mild/cooler temperatures then persist into the majority of next week. Drier air and less favorable storm tracks then limit any potential for precipitation (very weak signal on Tuesday). A trend towards ridging is favored in ensembles by the end of the week, which should result in increasing temperatures to above average once again (70s to near 80). ...Winds Saturday Afternoon.... Stronger CAA behind the front may bring a period of windy conditions during the afternoon Saturday. There is a low chance (less than 5%) for advisory winds behind the front. Deterministic GFS sounding mixing heights are deeper and show some gusts in the 45 mph range, but ensembles and other model soundings are not supportive at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conditions prevail for the TAF period with a stratus deck sliding east through northeast ND in the 06-12z period. in association with this cloud back will be BKN025 to BKN035 so hovering on the MVFR threshold. Winds will also be locally enhanced with gusts currently westerly at 25ish kts. Expect that to continue under and immediately ahead of the cloud area through 12z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...TT