060
FXUS63 KFGF 050333
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1033 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe threat is ending for our area though strong thunderstorms
  remain possible through 5pm.

- Wind gusts near to over 45 mph with additional showers and
  thunderstorms are anticipated Wednesday, with 30 to 40 mph
  wind gusts and isolated showers on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Skies continue to clear out across the area this evening, with
lingering clouds in lakes country through Lake of the Woods. We
continued the wind advisory for tomorrow. We will continue to
monitor for any potential extension of the advisory into the
valley for tomorrow. Continued the chances for rain in the
afternoon and evening hours as the upper level low continues to
shift eastward.

UPDATE
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Clouds and rain continue to move east of the area this evening.
Severe weather chances have also shifted east and we are not
expecting anymore tonight. A few isolated showers will continue
to move through lakes country towards Lake of the Woods this
evening. Starting to see winds start to increase in central
North Dakota. This will be the trend as we head into tomorrow,
with a wind advisory going into affect for areas west of the
valley 12z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...Synopsis...

Threat severe weather is likely over for the region as the line of
storms is now located from near Sauk Centre to our south to east of
Baudette in the north. Lingering rain will clear most by 5pm across
the region with dry weather settling in for the night.

The upper trough bringing our current storms to northwest Minnesota
this afternoon will continue to elongate with a NW to SE orientation
as is it consolidates into a closed upper low over the Great Lakes
later this week with a jet streak overhead the upper midwest/
northern plains. Strong positive vorticity advection ahead of a
secondary wave currently noted in water vapor over southern British
Columbia will help to mix winds to the surface tomorrow. Along with
much cooler 700-850mb temps behind today`s front and steepening sfc-
4km lapse rates to further enhance wind transfer to the sfc from
aloft. Currently very high (>80%) probs for winds over 25kts and
have issued a wind advisory accordingly. Unsure yet on the eastern
extent though including all ND/MN valley counties at a later time is
not out the question. Could see the need for another wind advisory
Thursday though with a more shallow mixing layer only extending to
near 800mb will continue to simply monitor the threat for now.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, with just showers
Thursday. The most shower/thunder activity would be during the
afternoons of both days. Upper low moves off the east later in the
week with calmer conditions for Friday and the weekend. Upper low
gets replaced by mid level ridging hence the more tranquil weather
before breaking down early next week introducing returning chances
for more rain to start next week. Despite rain or sun each looks to
remain seasonal temperature wise with highs in the 60s to 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Cloud deck continues to move east of the Red River Valley
through BJI. Ceilings remain VFR through the TAF period. Sky
coverage is SKC to FEW for TVF, GFK, FAR, and DVL through 12z.
Winds start to increase out of the west 12z through 18z. Post
18z winds start to peak, with gusts of 35kts in DVL and 30kts in
GFK, FAR, and TVF. BJI will see weaker wind gusts of up to 20kts
in the afternoon. Winds continue to be strong, but diminish in
intensity post 00z through 06z. Rain moves in around 18z-21z,
with the best chances in BJI. Lightning and thunder should
remain minimal, but still possible especially for TVF and BJI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Spender