179
FXUS63 KFGF 051957
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
257 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-High wind warning for Devils Lake Basin and Wind advisory for
 remainder of eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley

-Scattered showers each of the next few days. Windy conditions
 persisting through the end of the week.

-Drier conditions this weekend before shower chances return
 next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...Synopsis...

Continue to note shortwave activity rotating around an upper low in
Manitoba/Saskatchewan. Coupled with strong strong mid level cold
advection and 850-700 mb flow of 40-50 kts a windy pattern is
expected to continue through Thursday before flow weakens. After
this upper low moves southeast along a tongue of potential vorticity
stretching to the great lakes region a mid level trough finally
clears the low level jet east of our area. In the meantime steep sfc-
700mb lapse and will maintain shower chances each day though
diminishing through the weekend.

... High Wind Warning/ Wind Advisory...

Strong 850mb flow can be noted in latest RAP analysis of 40-45 kts
with a max of 50+ approaching from the SE Manitoba will overspread
the upper Devils Lake basin this afternoon pushing winds into High
Wind Warning criteria as 40+ mph sustained winds and gusts to 60 mph
are possible. As the BL decouples this evening gusts should quickly
diminish though may remain quite breezy through midnight. For
tomorrow a similar pattern is forecast though thinking the core of
the strongest winds aloft and PGF at the sfc will past us and only
warrant a wind advisory for eastern North Dakota and adjacent
portions of Minnesota. Punting on issuance to avoid confusion with
current active headlines but foresee evening or night crew issuing
more wind headlines.

...Fire Weather...

Decreasing shower chances (see below) leading to more widespread low
RH values with our remaining strong winds teaming up to give winds
over 20 mph and RH as low as 30%. Knowing the bias in the dewpoint
forecast would lean into upper 20s for humidity planning purposes.
Winds seem to be well handled with this predictable pattern thus not
expecting critical fire weather conditions but certainly to
keep in the back of the mind and monitor.

...Shower Activity...

Steep lapse rates and diurnal heating will continue to favor shower
and thunderstorm formation. A weak shortwave rotating through the
area should promote more widespread convective growth this afternoon
through favoring NW Minnesota. Any collapsing storm should tap into
the stronger winds aloft warranting the 5% risk across the area for
wind though hail potential looks low due to shallow nature of
storms. The lower freezing levels could help compensate for this
however thus the 5% hail risk. Shallower boundary layer Thursday and
Friday will cut down on severe chances through general thunderstorms
and scattered showers remain a 30% chance each day.

...Weekend and Beyond...

Thermal ridging moves in under upper troughing this weekend further
diminishing precip chances for a few days before trough returns to
the western CONUS bringing more shortwave activity to the northern
plains early next week. Less than 30% chance for > 0.10" of precip
any given day due to uncertainty in pattern evolution, though
general pattern looks favorable for more rain chances.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Likely a few thunderstorms in NW Minnesota this afternoon
affecting TVF and BJI. Winds 20-30 mph this afternoon gusting
35-40 mph, gusts dissipate overnight before returning tomorrow
afternoon though slightly weaker winds tomorrow. VFR conditions
for the period asides from periods of Thunder out east with
fuel alternate thresholds for winds in some locations.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-
     027>030-038-039-049-052-053.
     High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007-
     029.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT