800
FXUS63 KFGF 250441
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1141 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds in southeastern North Dakota have picked up into the 25
  to 35 mph range with gusts up to 45 mph, issued a wind
  advisory for Barnes, Ransom, Sargent, through 7 PM.

- Some snow has been falling in our far northwestern counties.
  While clouds tonight will not clear to bring classic frost
  development, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s.

- Additional scattered showers into the holiday weekend, but
  widespread rain has already impacted area rivers.

&&


UPDATE
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Upper low continues to move slowly off to the north and east
this evening, with persistent light precipitation stretched
along a trailing axis of Fgen. The radar presentation is that of
a weak deformation zone, with light to moderate snow along the
International Border, and light rain further south. Winds have
diminished slightly, with most gusts now below 40 mph.
Temperatures have cooled significantly with near freezing at the
International Border and middle 40s in the southern Red River
Valley.

UPDATE
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Extended the wind advisory through 10pm and added several
counties as winds continue to gust upwards of 45mph. Other
forecast elements remain on track this evening as colder air
fills into the region. Light snow is being reported at several
sites in the Devils lake basin, including Cando and Langdon.
Temperatures in the Devils Lake basin are in the low to middle
30s, with 40s elsewhere in the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Upper low continues to rotate over the forecast area and has
produced some convection. A few cold core upper low funnels and
one confirmed tornado have been confirmed as of this writing,
but should see instability decrease rapidly after 22Z and CAMs
all have cells diminishing before sunset. Winds will also
decrease around 00Z as the pressure gradient relaxes and the
core of pressure rises and cold air advection moves off to the
east. Wind advisory for our far southwestern counties should be
coming down by this evening.

The weakening showers will join the rain that has been soaking
the northern counties this afternoon, with some snow flakes
continuing to mix in across far northwestern portions of the
CWA. At this point think travel impacts will be minimal for
winter, but plenty of cold temperatures to work with as cold air
advection continues. Even with not much clearing until close to
morning, readings in the upper Devils Lake Basin are already in
the mid 30s. Expect the 30s to spread south and east into
tonight, just a question of how far. Continued winds and clouds
will not bring the classic frost formation on the ground, but
temps will drop down into the 33 to 36 range across portions of
northeastern ND into northwestern MN. Put out a frost advisory
for late tonight into tomorrow morning.

West then northwesterly sets up as the upper low exits off into
Canada, but some weak shortwaves could bring some periodic
shower and thunderstorm chances, particularly with decent
ensemble agreement on a stronger shortwave Sunday night into
Monday. Ridge building in for Wednesday/Thursday, then southwest
flow and a more active pattern returns for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

IFR conditions prevail at KTVF and KBJI during the early
overnight period, with MVFR CIGs developing around or just
before sunrise. Light rain continues to move slowly out of the
area, with some light snow still expected along the
International Border. Winds are slowly diminishing, with most
locations now seeing gusts mostly below 30 knots. Further
improvement is expected by mid morning Saturday as cloud cover
becomes more scattered, giving way to VFR conditions Saturday
afternoon for all TAF sites.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-054.
     Flood Watch from late Sunday night through late Tuesday night
     for NDZ053.
MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ001-004-005-007-
     008-013>015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Lynch