707
FXUS63 KFGF 110420
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1120 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms across northwestern
  Minnesota this afternoon. Isolated stronger cells with
  lightning, pea hail, and wind gusts to 55 mph.

- Near critical fire weather conditions continue in portions of
  the Red River Valley with winds gusting to 35 mph and dry
  relative humidity values near 25 percent.

- Very similar conditions tomorrow, with a few storms near Lake
  of the Woods and low relative humidity values and gusty west
  winds in the northern Red River Valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Starting to see a bit of upstream cirrus over southeast
Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba. This should move into the
FA well after midnight. Otherwise winds will remain light
overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

There are just a few echoes left on radar, mainly along the
eastern fringe of the FA, from Baudette to Bemidji to Wadena.
Cloud cover is also diminishing, which will make for a good
night to view the Northern Lights. Models seem to be overdoing
the sky cover amounts this evening. Other than some very thin
cirrus or smoke, there isn`t too much cloud cover upstream.
Therefore, once the cumulus fades away, don`t see much other
than this thin cirrus or smoke through most of the night. Wind
speeds will quickly drop off by dark as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Fairly strong shortwave digging through northern MN currently,
with cumulus and showers across much of our eastern CWA. No
reports of small hail so far, but a few are tall enough to
produce lightning and a couple of cells were strong enough to
mix down a few gusts above 50 mph. Will continue some messaging
for stronger storms through sunset, but the 500 J/kg of surface
based CAPE that we see will rapidly diminish and there is no
shear to speak of. Thus. most of the cumulus should dissipate
and allow mostly clear skies for aurora viewing, although some
cirrus could start moving in towards morning. The breezy
northwest winds will also settle down and RH values will
improve, improving our near critical fire weather conditions in
the Red River Valley.

Similar conditions for tomorrow however, as another shortwave
moves through southern Manitoba and brings more shower activity
to northwestern Minnesota. This time the CWA will be in the warm
sector of the surface low with southwesterly winds and highs
approaching 80 degrees in the Red River Valley. RH values will
again be down near the 25 percent mark although winds will be
lighter everywhere except the far northern Red River Valley. May
have to watch that area again for near critical fire weather
concerns. As for as convection goes, the HREF has a few updraft
helicity tracks that are on the high side tomorrow afternoon,
but CAPE values are less than 1000 J/kg and think probabilities
for anything actually severe are under 10 percent.

Frontal boundary pushing in behind the shortwave and high
pressure building in will bring cooler temperatures and quiet
weather for Sunday and Monday. A trough of low pressure will
begin to approach by late Tuesday, coming out into the Plains on
Wednesday. How this system is handled mid to late week as it
moves into the eastern Plains and into the Rockies is not
particularly well handled by the ensembles, with about an even
split in the clusters by Thursday between a trough to our west
and a ridge. Blend gives us fairly active precip chances with
slightly below average highs and this seems reasonable at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The 00z set of TAFs remain on target, so stuck with the main
ideas from them. Light winds overnight will take on a SSW
component by mid Saturday morning, then get pretty breezy again
by afternoon (mainly KDVL/KGFK/KTVF). These winds will drop
again by early Saturday evening. Clouds may be a little tricky.
Have stuck with the idea of FEW-SCT250 for overnight into
Saturday morning. By afternoon, there should be some lower or
mid cloud development (SCT-BKN070-100), but still VFR. Then
during the later afternoon into the evening, expect some SCT
shower maybe isolated thunder development. Being this far out,
it is still a low confidence forecast, so left as VCSH at some
of the northern TAF sites for now.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Godon