109
FXUS65 KFGZ 220324
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
824 PM MST Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
over the weekend and into the middle of next week. Otherwise, muggy
and hot conditions will continue.

&&

.UPDATE...Showers and thuderstorms continue this evening south of
a line from Payson to the Four Corners. This activity is generally
moving northeast. Have increased the PoPs in this area into early
morning...updates already sent. Deeper moisture is still expceted
on Satuday with an increase in showers and thundertorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /447 PM MST/...Model soundings are indicating and
mesoscale forecast models are showing a downturn in the coverage
of shower and thunderstorm activity today compared to Thursday.
The main change to the forecast for today was to lower the chance
of showers and thunderstorms across the area near the Arizona/Utah
border and Four Corners. The net result will be about 30-40%
coverage of showers and storms toward the Arizona/Utah border and
Four Corners with lesser coverage further south. We continue to
see a decent amount of vertical shear in the environment and there
will remain a threat of an isolated severe thunderstorm or two
across northern Arizona into the evening hours. The main threat
for severe storms will be along the Arizona/Utah border and Four
Corners. We have already seen on isolated severe storm west of
Page producing radar indicated 2.00 inch diamter hail. Wind gusts
in excess of 60 mph will also be possbile should a severe storm
develop. Otherwise, look for hot and somewhat muggy weather to
continue as we make our first foray into a true monsoon pattern.

For Saturday through Wednesday...High pressure will build over
Arizona as the remnants of Alberto move across the southern portion
of the Gulf of California. In addition, thunderstorm activity over
the Sierra Occidental of northwest Mexico is expected to ramp-up.
The result will be a surge of additional moisture from over the Gulf
of California into Arizona. The input of deep monsoon moisture with
the combination of high pressure setting up over Arizona will
introduce the threat of daily showers and thunderstorms through the
period. Winds will be much lighter with a less vertically sheared
environment so storms will be more of the up/down pulse variety.
You can expect that hot and muggy monsoon feeling each day with a
chance of afternoon relief should you be lucky enough to get a
shower or storm overhead.

From Thursday onward...Models are indicating a downturn in shower
and thunderstorm activity with the passing of a drying and
stabilizing trough from the west. In reality, for monsoon
forecasting, that`s a bit far off to have much condfidence.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 22/00Z through Sunday 23/00Z...Mainly VFR
expected overnight, with local MVFR conditions in isolated to
scattered -TSRA. Thunderstorms will develop again after 17Z on
Saturday, with Scattered to numerous storms along and south of a
line from KGCN-KRQE. Expect MVFR conditions and local IFR conditions
in storms. Winds will be light on Saturday, but gusty around
thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/00Z through Tuesday 25/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected, with SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z each day, most
numerous over the higher terrain. S-SW winds 5-15 kts each
afternoon. Erratic and gusty winds in the vicinity of storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Expect scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Wetting rains are likely
with any storms, as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 45
mph. Outside of outflow winds, expect south to southwest winds at 10-
15 mph both days.

Monday through Wednesday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue Monday, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim and the
White Mountains. Storm activity may decrease on Tuesday and
Wednesday. A gradual warming trend leads to above normal
temperatures by Tuesday. Otherwise, light southwesterly winds around
10-15 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/McCollum
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff