122
FXUS65 KFGZ 181703
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1003 AM MST Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Slightly below normal temperatures and breezy conditions
continue for the rest of this week. Only a slight chance of showers
for late Friday and Saturday over northern Arizona, but mostly dry
conditions otherwise. A benign and warmer weather pattern develops
for next week.

&&

.UPDATE...A cold morning was observed across the north country
with the low temperature reaching 27 degrees here in Bellemont and
30 up at the Grand Canyon. After the cold start, a mild day is in
store. Daytime temperatures will remain about 5 degrees below
normal. Typical southwest afternoon breezes from 15 to 25 mph can
be expected. Some cloud cover this morning across central and
eastern Arizona is expected to mix out and dissipate by midday,
with otherwise mostly sunny skies. The forecast is in good shape
with no morning updates planned.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/...There are two areas of low pressure
over the western part of the US this morning. One low is over
Montana and Wyoming. This is the low that brought windy
conditions over northern Arizona on Monday. Another low is quickly
following on the first`s heels and is currently just along the
coast near the OR/CA border. The second low will move south along
the coast reaching the LA Basin by Thursday afternoon before
moving east to the Las Vegas area by Friday afternoon. The low
will weaken and eject to the Four Corners area by mid-day
Saturday. A ridge will then build over the Great Basin and extend
southwestward well in into the Pacific through Tuesday.

This pattern will bring daily south to southwest winds in the 15
to 25 mph range, followed by crisp and cool nights as the winds
decrease.

As the low transitions across Arizona later this week and into
the weekend, a few light showers may develop. Additionally, high
temperatures will dip a few degrees below average.

High temperatures will warm to above average as high pressure
returns next week, for a early fall warm-up.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 18/18Z through Thursday 19/18Z...Widespread
VFR conditions persist through the period with mostly clear skies.
Expect south to southwest winds, 10-25 kts, this afternoon
becoming variable under 10 kts after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 19/18Z through Saturday 21/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are anticipated through Saturday. Mostly clear sky
conditions are forecast for Thursday into Friday, becoming SCT low
to mid-level clouds for Friday night into Saturday. BKN cloud
cover along with slight chances for -SHRA are forecast on Friday
along and northwest of a P23-KFLG-KPGA line. Conditions improve on
Saturday. Expect southwest winds, 15-25 kts, each afternoon,
shifting to the northwest on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry conditions with seasonably
cool temperatures. Daytime winds southwest 15 to 20 mph, with gusts
up to 30 mph, becoming light and variable overnight.

Friday through Sunday...Seasonably cool temperatures continue
through Saturday, with temperatures rising on Sunday. Breezy
southwest winds on Friday, becoming light from the north for the
weekend. Mainly dry conditions, outside of a slight chance for
showers over far northern Arizona on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT/MAS
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff