897
FXUS65 KFGZ 170515
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1015 PM MST Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will combine with breezy southwest
winds to create critical fire weather conditions both today and
Monday. Temperatures will trend closer to normal today through
Wednesday, before warming again late in the week. A chance of
thunderstorms arrives by next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Clear skies across northern Arizona with just a few
higher clouds trying to skirting across the Utah-Arizona state
line. Winds have dropped off this evening leaving us with a good
night for radiational cooling.

Tomorrow yields another dry and windy day with a Wind Advisory and
a Red Flag Warning up for much of northern Arizona. The only
positive item to note is that temperatures will be slightly
cooler due influence from a trough across the northwestern states.

Forecast is in good shape and only minor edits were made this
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /422 PM MST/...A deepening trough over the northwestern United
States will affect our area through at least Tuesday. The primary
impacts will be dry and windy conditions, as well as with somewhat
cooler temperatures. The windiest days will be ahead of the trough
axis, today and especially Monday. Winds decrease after that, but
will stay breezy through at least Thursday, as remnants of the
trough linger over the region.

Current RFW products look fine, some zones are marginal at best, we
will not make changes and a Wind Advisory was added for Monday. The
bottom line is that it has not rained in weeks and any increase in
wind speeds combined with our dry boundary layer will lead to
dangerous FWX conditions.

There is now a distinct possibility that sustained southerly or
southwesterly flow, along with a building ridge late this week, will
push the Monsoon boundary layer into Arizona by next weekend, maybe
even by Friday. This could lead to an outbreak of dry, high-based
thunderstorms and hot temperatures, not a good recipe, stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 17/06Z through Tuesday 18/06Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the TAF period. Winds generally 10 kts or
less will continue through at least 15Z, before gusty SW winds
return. Look for gusts 30-40 kts and sustained speeds 15-25 kts.
Winds will gradually decline after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 18/06Z through Thursday 20/06Z...VFR conditions
will persist through the outlook period. Look for SW winds 5-15
kts each afternoon, with light and variable overnight winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Widespread critical fire
weather conditions along and north of the Mogollon Rim are expected
on Monday afternoon, due to single digit humidity/gusty southwest
winds, 30 to 45 mph. Winds weaken on Tuesday, however, conditions
remain dry.

Wednesday through Friday...Breezy southwest winds, 15 to 25 mph on
Wednesday, with 10 to 15% humidity. Moisture increases gradually on
Thursday and Friday, with chances for dry thunderstorms returning to
the forecast. Southwest winds remain breezy each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ Monday for AZZ104>107-109>116-139-140.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/
Monday for AZZ004-006-007-009>016-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/Peterson
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff