406
FXUS65 KFGZ 161715
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1015 AM MST Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will combine with breezy southwest
winds to create critical fire weather conditions both today and
Monday. Temperatures will trend closer to normal today through
Wednesday, before warming again late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A deepening trough over the northwestern United
States will affect our area through at least Tuesday. The primary
impacts will be dry and windy conditions, as well as with somewhat
cooler temperatures. The windiest days will be ahead of the trough
axis, today and especially Monday. Winds decrease after that, but
will stay breezy through at least Thursday, as remnants of the
trough linger over the region.

Current RFW products look fine, some zones are marginal at best, we
will not make changes this morning. The bottom line is that it has
not rained in weeks and any increase in wind speeds combined with
our dry boundary layer will lead to dangerous FWX conditions.

There is now a distinct possibility that sustained southerly or
southwesterly flow, along with a building ridge late this week, will
push the Monsoon boundary layer into Arizona by next weekend. This
could lead to an outbreak of high-based thunderstorms and hot
temperatures, not a good recipe, stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 16/18Z through Monday 17/18Z...VFR conditions
persist through Monday with clear skies. Expect gusty southwest
surface winds each afternoon, sustained 15-20 kts with gusts up
to 35 kts, from ~16Z-03Z. Light and variable winds are anticipated
thereafter.

OUTLOOK...Monday 17/18Z through Wednesday 19/18Z...VFR conditions
prevail through Wednesday with mostly clear skies. Afternoon
southwest winds decrease for Tuesday and Wednesday, however remain
breezy, 15-25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Warm, very dry, and windy. A Red
Flag Warning has been issued for much of northern Arizona on both
afternoons. Daytime southwest winds 15-25, with gusts from 30-40
mph. Afternoon minimum RH values 5-15%.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry and breezy conditions with seasonable
temperatures. Daytime winds south through southwest 10-20 mph with
gusts around 25 mph each day. Afternoon minimum RH values 10-20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ104>109-112-115-140.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ Monday for AZZ104>107-109>116-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff