748
FXUS65 KFGZ 262058
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
158 PM MST Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Very warm and dry conditions continue across the
Southwest as high pressure dominates. Winds will remain light each
day into next week varying between the south and east. This benign
weather pattern looks to persist for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Not too much to discuss in regards to the current
and future weather for northern Arizona. A high pressure ridge
remains large and in charge across the Southwest resulting in
10-15 degree above average temperatures, light southerly winds,
and very dry conditions. Fair weather cumulus clouds have
developed this afternoon mainly along and northeast of the higher
terrain. Don`t be surprised to see/smell smoke from ongoing
prescribed burns and wildfires in the High Country today,
especially near Flagstaff where smoke and haze could impact areas
near the airport once again overnight.

The high pressure ridge is forecast to strengthen for Friday and
Saturday as temperatures peak to July-like warmth. East winds,
10-15 mph, are expected for Friday afternoon followed by southerly
winds on Saturday. The ridge becomes less amplified Sunday into
next week as the jet stream towards the north moves southward,
draped over the northern states. In response, daytime
temperatures decrease ever so gradually beginning on Sunday,
however, still remain 5-10 degrees above average by the end of
next week. Afternoon winds will predominantly be from the
southwest on Sunday, becoming northeast to southeast for Monday
and Tuesday.

By Wednesday of next week, GEFS and EPS ensemble model guidance
suggests almost zonal flow developing over the Southwest. West-
southwest winds, 10-20 mph, will prevail for Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons with conditions remaining dry.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 26/18Z through Friday 27/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions persist through the period with some FEW-SCT fair
weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Scattered haze/smoke is
possible near KFLG/KSEZ this evening, however this depends on
local fire activity. Expect light southerly winds, 5-15 kts,
through 01Z, becoming variable thereafter.

OUTLOOK...Friday 27/18Z through Sunday 29/18Z...Plan on mostly VFR
conditions with FEW-SCT cloud cover above 10,000 feet AGL. Periods
of smoke/haze will be possible depending on local fire activity.
Easterly winds, 5-15 kts, are likely on Friday, followed by light
southerly winds for the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...The dry and very warm
conditions persist for Friday and Saturday. Expect afternoon
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above average each day along with low
humidity of 10 to 20%. Light easterly winds tonight will continue
through Friday, 5 to 15 mph. Winds shift to the south again on
Saturday, 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday through Tuesday...The drying and warming trend continues for
Sunday and into early next week as high pressure dominates the
region. Moisture will remain minimal with minimum humidity near 15%
each day. Recoveries will be poor to moderate each night. Daytime
temperatures remain in the 10 to 15 degrees above average range with
southwest winds on Sunday, followed by easterly winds for Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff