714
FXUS65 KFGZ 172122
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
222 PM MST Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Critical fire weather conditions will persist into
Monday evening. Temperatures will trend closer to normal through
Wednesday, before warming again late in the week. A chance of
thunderstorms arrives Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Critical fire weather conditions are ongoing across
northern Arizona this morning as a trough moves across the
northwest U.S. Winds so far have been ranging between 25 and 55
mph and will continue to do so this afternoon.

After today, the main low will move northeast but a trough will
remain stalled over the western U.S., keeping breezy southwesterly
winds (15-30 mph) each afternoon for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Accompanying the system is cooler weather with Tuesday`s highs
expected to be ~5 degrees below normal.

Later this week into the weekend, confidence remains high that
monsoonal moisture will start to increase as high pressure builds
and shifts west. Confidence remains low in precipitation amounts
and overall coverage for the weekend as the high shifts. Moisture
overall looks limited and elevated so receiving any meaningful
moisture will only be for a lucky few. Right now Friday looks to
be the best day for coverage. In reality, these storms provide
more of a wildfire risk as they could help contribute to new
lightning started fires. As we head into the weekend and into next
week, the high parks almost directly overhead, resulting in more
suppression than actual moisture input...though shifts in
placement would result in variations in precipitation so will
continue to have to monitor over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 17/18Z through Tuesday 18/18Z...VFR
conditions persisting through the period. Winds S/SW 15-25 kts,
gusting 30-40 kts, becoming W/SW 5-15 kts after 04Z.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday 18/18Z through Thursday 20/18Z...VFR conditions
continue through the period. Daytime winds SW 10-15 kts on
Tuesday, becoming S for Wednesday/Thursday. Generally light and
variable winds expected overnight. Isolated -SHRA/TS develops near
the AZ/NM state ling Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Rest of Today through Wednesday...Strong winds
gusting 25-45 mph will persist into the evening. This, coupled with
teen to single digit RHs, is resulting in critical fire weather
conditions. A RFW will remain in effect until 2000 MST tonight.
Tuesday and Wednesday will feature lighter winds with afternoon
gusts 15-25 mph out of the SW/S. Afternoon RHs will continue falling
into the teens to single digits.

Thursday through Saturday...Warming temperatures and SW breezy
afternoons gusting 15-30 mph are expected Thursday and Friday.
Increasing moisture will result in higher RHs and shower and storms
chances starting Thursday. Winds become lighter for the weekend.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ104>107-109>116-139-140.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-
006-007-009>016-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...RKR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff