064
FXUS65 KFGZ 231736
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1036 AM MST Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and above average temperatures will
continue through the forecast period. Expect generally light winds
varying in direction each day.

&&

.UPDATE...Expect north to easterly winds, 10-20 mph, this
afternoon as a broad area of low pressure continues to make its
way eastward, allowing high pressure to build and move in from the
west. A drying and warming trend will persist for much of this
week with daytime temperatures roughly 10-15 degrees above average
forecast for much of this week. Conditions will remain dry with
no precipitation expected anytime soon. The current forecast
remains on track with no changes needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /421 AM MST/...Despite being at the time of the
year where we expect temperatures to cool, a warming trend is
forecast through the end of the week. If these above normal
temperatures are not your jam, just wait for the evening/overnight
hours where temperatures in the 30s and 40s are expected for many
areas of the High Country.

These warm, dry, and mostly calm conditions are thanks to a strong
high pressure system. This pattern will continue to dominate much
of the Southwest through the next 7+ days, with minimal change
shown in model guidance. The slight change we can expect is over
the weekend, where temperatures look to drop by a couple of
degrees from a potential passing shortwave. This wave looks to
stay mostly north and east of Arizona, but overall will slightly
weaken the pressure gradients associated with the ridge. Even
with the slight dip in daytime highs, these temperatures should
still ring in 5-10 degrees above normal.

With no major changes expected through the forecast period, this
discussion will be kept short and sweet. Check back later in the
week for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 23/18Z through Tuesday 24/18Z...Widespread VFR
conditions with mostly clear skies continues through the period.
Expect north to easterly winds, 5-15 kts, through 01Z becoming
light and variable under 10 kts thereafter. Gustier northeast
winds, 15-25 kts, are anticipated at KSEZ from 03Z-15Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 24/18Z through Thursday 26/18Z...VFR conditions
persist with little to no cloud cover through Thursday. Plan on
easterly winds, 5-15 kts, on Tuesday followed by southerly winds,
10-20 kts, for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Warm and dry weather continues
with variable winds around 5-15 mph each day. Afternoon RH values
between 10-20 percent.

Wednesday through Friday...Warm and dry conditions continue through
the week. Expect variable winds around 5-15 mph each day with
afternoon RH values between 10-20 percent.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/Konieczny
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff