Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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501 FXUS65 KFGZ 160524 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1024 PM MST Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will combine with breezy southwest winds to create critical fire weather conditions both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will trend closer to normal Sunday through Wednesday before warming again late next week. && .UPDATE...There are just a few clouds over far eastern Apache north of St Johns this evening. These clouds should all move east into New Mexico by midnight. Southwest breezes are still being reported across the area this evening...mostly below 10 knots. These winds will slowly diminish through the night. Current forecast is in good shape. && .PREV DISCUSSION /519 PM MST/...Mostly zonal flow aloft is allowing for breezy afternoon conditions as a trough enters the Pacific NW. As the trough dives southeast, winds are going to be increasing across the SW tomorrow into Monday. While this system enters, little shift in moisture availability is expected. This means that many tomorrow will still have critically low RHs coupled with near critical to critical wind gusts. As this system passes, higher winds across northern Arizona will shift from west to east. Because of this, more of our western zones are in a RFW for Sunday, then shifting east Monday. That said, it is possible that parts of Yavapai county could briefly still hit RFW criteria Monday, but the time window will be limited as the system moves. While RFW criteria is the headline of the weather Sunday and Monday, the increased winds combined with a VERY minimal input of cooler temperatures from the passing trough will allow for a slight drop in temperatures tomorrow into the middle of next work week, bringing high temperatures closer to normal for this time of year. High pressure will be able to start working its way back into the area by late next week, allowing temperatures to start warming once again. One difference this time compared to recent pushes of heating is the increase in moisture. Both Euro and GFS ensemble guidance are honing in on PWATS increasing late next week into next weekend with the mean pushing values near an inch or more for southern Arizona. This increase in moisture in the current 7 day can be seen with low POPs sliding in from NM by the end of this work week. Still subject to change so stay tuned. && .AVIATION...Sunday 16/06Z through Monday 17/06Z...VFR. Light and variable winds, then increasing SW winds 15-25 kts with gusts 25-35 kts after 16Z. OUTLOOK...Monday 17/06Z through Wednesday 19/06Z...VFR. S-SW winds 15-25 kts with gusts 25-35 kts between 18Z-02Z with light and variable winds overnight. Lighter winds expected on Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Warm, very dry and windy at times. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for large portions of central and northern Arizona on both afternoons. Expect daytime southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph, with gusts from 35 to 40 mph. Winds will decrease substantially at night. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry and breezy, with seasonable temperatures. Daytime winds south through southwest 10 to 20 mph, with gusts around 25 mph, all days. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ104>109-112-115-140. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ106-107-109>116-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...MAS/RKR AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff