707
FXUS65 KFGZ 232059
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
159 PM MST Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm weather will continue across the region
as high pressure builds. Light breezes are expected each day with
clear sky conditions. Temperatures cool slightly by Sunday with
breezy southwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tranquil weather is taking place across northern
Arizona this afternoon as high pressure builds over much of the
West. Most locations in northern Arizona are experiencing light
northeast winds, 5-15 mph, with roughly 5 degree above average
temperatures. Temperatures cool by nightfall as light easterly
flow persists. Stronger northeast winds, 15-30 mph, are likely
overnight for locations southwest of the Mogollon Rim and Bradshaw
Mountains, including Sedona, the Verde Valley, and portions of
I-17 from Munds Park to Black Canyon City. These winds should calm
down just before sunrise Tuesday morning.

The warming and drying trend persists for much of this week as
high pressure dominates the Southwest. The most noticeable element
for this week will be the daytime temperatures as 5-10 degree
above average highs are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday,
followed by 10-15 degree above average highs for Thursday, Friday,
and Saturday. Afternoon temperatures for the latter half of the
week will rival daily record highs for this time of year,
especially in the High Country where widespread temperatures in
the 80s are forecast. One last taste of summer for this year?
Let`s hope this is it!

One more day of easterly winds are forecast on Tuesday before they
switch to the south on Wednesday. Nothing too strong, 10-20 mph
during the daytime hours. Light and variable flow is forecast on
Thursday and Friday underneath a high pressure ridge. Flow turns
more southwesterly on Saturday with slightly cooler temperatures
on Sunday as a shortwave trough looks to push through California.
However, this will depend on the overall strength of the high
over the Four Corners and potential trough positioning. One thing
that is pretty much certain at this time is that no precipitation
is anticipated anytime soon.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 23/18Z through Tuesday 24/18Z...Widespread VFR
conditions with mostly clear skies continues through the period.
Expect north to easterly winds, 5-15 kts, through 01Z becoming
light and variable under 10 kts thereafter. Gustier northeast
winds, 15-25 kts, are anticipated at KSEZ from 03Z-15Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 24/18Z through Thursday 26/18Z...VFR conditions
persist with little to no cloud cover through Thursday. Plan on
easterly winds, 5-15 kts, on Tuesday followed by southerly winds,
10-20 kts, for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...The drying and warming trend
continues with widespread humidity of 15 to 20% each afternoon and
daytime temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average. Expect east-
northeast winds, 10 to 15 mph, on Tuesday followed by southerly
winds, 10 to 20 mph, on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...High pressure remains over northern
Arizona through Saturday resulting in daytime temperatures of 10 to
15 degrees above average and near critically dry conditions. Winds
will be variable, 10 to 15 mph, on Thursday and Friday, becoming
southwest on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff