Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
603 FXUS65 KFGZ 121544 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 844 AM MST Wed Jun 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures, even for June, are in the forecast the next couple of days. Some relief from the heat arrives Thursday evening into Friday along with a chance for light rain showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation amounts will be minimal with dry lightning possible. Dry, warm, and breezy conditions return by the weekend, continuing into next week. && .UPDATE...Another hot day is in store for Arizona. Temperatures are already in the 70s and 80s for much of the High Country, and we`ll continue to see climbing temperatures through the afternoon. The Excessive Heat Warning is still projected to start at 10 AM MST today for areas below 4000`. Outside of heat, look for mostly sunny skies, with periods of high clouds across higher terrain later this afternoon and light to breezy southwest winds. The previous forecast package/discussion remains representative of what is to come weather-wise. No updates were made at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION /452 AM MST/...High pressure in the region will keep temperatures elevated today, bringing daytime temperatures roughly 10 degrees above normal. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for elevations below 4,000 feet and will be in effect at 10 AM MST this morning. While the heat will be felt across the state, the Grand Canyon, Marble Canyon, Glen Canyon, and the lower elevations of Yavapai County will likely experience the greatest impacts. Now is the time to hydrate. Whether recreating or working outside, avoid strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day (10 am to 7 pm.) Make sure to check in on vulnerable populations such as the elderly, especially if they do not have air conditioning. Adding to the heat will be mostly sunny skies. Some afternoon breezes out of the southwest will only provide minor relief. Thursday and Friday...Slight improvements will be noticed on Thursday as temperatures begin to abate with increasing cloud cover pushing south to north throughout the day. The cut-off low that is currently located west of northern Baja California will lift to the north and then northeast beginning Thursday afternoon. This will displace the high pressure area eastward, helping to prevent temperatures from climbing too high. By the late afternoon, slight rain chances enter the forecast for Yavapai County and western Coconino County. Precipitation is expected to be limited with light rain possible over higher elevations and mostly virga for lower elevations. Regardless the sparse coverage Thursday, rain chances will increase overnight as the low continues to advance northeastward. By Friday, rain showers will shift to areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim as the low continues its journey across Arizona. The best chances for rain will be in northeast Arizona, especially over the Chuska Mountains and Black Mesa. Once again, dry conditions in the lower portion of the atmosphere will limit accumulation. Model projected CAPE values in the 200-500 J/kg range will allow for convection by late morning with models projecting the higher CAPE values for the Mogollon Rim and northward. Dry lightning along with gusty, erratic winds will be legitimate concerns where thunderstorms develop. Outside of storms, winds will gradually shift from breezy southwesterlies Thursday to breezy west-northwest Friday with the passing of the low pressure system. Temperatures to end the week will be seasonal. Saturday through Wednesday...High pressure returns to the area over the weekend into next week. However, zonal flow to our north will prevent a dominant ridge from developing. If the model projections are correct, this synoptic setup will limit extreme temperatures for northern Arizona, keeping conditions near average. Furthermore, a longwave trough looks to force its way south by the middle of next week, bringing a return of cooler temperatures. While there is uncertainty for this portion of the forecast, the trough is expected to displace upper-level high pressure, preventing our typical pre-monsoon weather pattern from setting up. At least temperatures will be near average and manageable. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 12/12Z through Thursday 13/12Z...VFR conditions prevail. Light, variable surface winds this morning will become SW at 10-15 kts gusting around 20-25 kts between 17Z-03Z before calming overnight once again. OUTLOOK...Thursday 13/12Z through Saturday 15/12Z...VFR conditions continue as cloud cover gradually increases Thursday. Periods of isolated -SHRA/-TSRA enter the forecast for areas near KPRC by the afternoon Thursday. RA/TS chances and coverage increase Thursday night into Friday, spreading east and northeast. Gusty, erratic winds are likely near thunderstorms. Away from TS, winds will be at 10-15 kts, gusting 20-25 kts, shifting from W-SW Thursday to W-NW Friday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry, hot weather with afternoon RH values from 5-15%. Daytime temperatures will be roughly 10 degrees above average. West-southwest winds will gust at 15-25 mph both days. A slight chance (10-25%) for showers and thunderstorms begins Thursday afternoon for Yavapai County and western Coconino County. Rain chances (15-40%) and coverage increase overnight. Friday through Sunday...Slightly cooler and cloudy Friday as rain chances continue through much of the day. Isolated thunderstorms will lead to dry lightning and erratic, gusty winds, primarily for northeast Arizona. Afternoon humidity will be in the teens for much of the area. Breezy winds shift to the west-northwest. Dry and warm Saturday and Sunday with breezy southwest winds strengthening. Windy conditions Sunday will cause near critical fire weather conditions. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny/Mazon AVIATION...Mazon FIRE WEATHER...Mazon For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff