Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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237 FXUS65 KFGZ 111040 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 340 AM MST Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will strengthen over Arizona, leading to hot temperatures across the region through the middle of the week. By Friday, a low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures and a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures rebound as we dry out Saturday, followed by more seasonable temperatures heading into next week. && .DISCUSSION...A cutoff low southwest of San Diego will remain in place for a few days, allowing a narrow, high amplitude ridge to develop along the AZ/NM border. This will bring a heat wave to our area, starting today and peaking Wednesday and Thursday. Excessive Heat Warnings have already been hoisted for our lower elevations and this will remain in place. The cutoff low will break loose at some point Thursday and will eject ENE across the Lower Colorado River and northern Arizona Thursday night into Friday. Southerly flow ahead of the low will import some modestly higher dew points, which will combine with limited mid-level moisture and cooling associated with the core of the low. This will produce scattered, high-based convection for Thursday night and Friday over our CWA. The convection coupled with gusty winds (below any NPW/FWX criteria) will also lead to elevated FWX concerns. However, relative humidity values will be on the rise and some storms may actually contain wetting rains. The bigger story is the heat for now, followed by three days of breezy winds (Wed-Fri) and then the threat for pockets of high-based convection. Temperatures will cool in response to the low passage Friday, then will rebound as we dry out Saturday, followed by a "cooler" zonal pattern heading into next week. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 11/06Z through Wednesday 12/06Z...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds generally 10 kts or less, varying in direction. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 12/06Z through Friday 14/06Z...VFR conditions are expected to persist. Daytime winds from the W-SW, 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Dry conditions with hot temperatures, along with afternoon RH values 5-15%. West/southwest winds 10 mph or less, becoming southwest 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday...Hot conditions remain on Thursday, before cooling slightly. Breezy west/southwest winds with gusts of 20-30 mph possible each afternoon. Chance for isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms late Thursday and Friday, especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Dry conditions are otherwise expected. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning below 4000 feet from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Wednesday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...MCT FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff