812
FXUS65 KFGZ 180525
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1025 PM MST Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will trend closer to normal through
Wednesday, before warming again late in the week. A chance of
thunderstorms will develop daily from Thursday through the
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Winds have subsided to below wind advisory and red flag
warning criteria. Therefore, allowed both products to expire at
8 PM MST.

Otherwise, the current forecast is in good shape with no major
updates required.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /432 PM MST/...Critical fire weather conditions
are ongoing across northern Arizona as a trough moves across the
northwest U.S. Winds so far have been ranging between 25 and 55
mph and will continue to do so this afternoon.

After today, the main low will move northeast but a trough will
remain stalled over the western U.S., keeping breezy southwesterly
winds (15-30 mph) each afternoon for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Accompanying the system is cooler weather with Tuesday`s highs
expected to be ~5 degrees below normal.

Later this week into the weekend, confidence remains high that
monsoonal moisture will start to increase as high pressure builds
and shifts west. Confidence remains low in precipitation amounts
and overall coverage for the weekend as the high shifts. Moisture
overall looks limited and elevated so receiving any meaningful
moisture will only be for a lucky few. Right now Friday looks to
be the best day for coverage. In reality, these storms provide
more of a wildfire risk as they could help contribute to new
lightning started fires. As we head into the weekend and into next
week, the high parks almost directly overhead, resulting in more
suppression than actual moisture input...though shifts in
placement would result in variations in precipitation so will
continue to have to monitor over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 18/06Z through Wednesday 19/06Z...VFR
conditions will persist through the period. SW wind gusts in the
20-25 knot range will develop over northern Arizona late Tuesday
morning, then subside Tuesday evening.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 19/06Z through Friday 21/06Z...VFR conditions
will prevail over northern Arizona through the period. Dry
conditions and southwesterly wind gusts up to 20 knots are
forecast for Wednesday. For Thursday, there will be a chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms east of a line from KPAN-
KINW-KPGA. SW wind gusts up to 30 knots is also forecast across
eastern Arizona, with SW wind gusts in the 20-25 knot range along
and west of I-17 and Highway 89.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Overnight through Wednesday...Winds will be
relatively lighter with afternoon gusts 15-25 mph out of the SW/S.
Afternoon RHs will continue falling into the teens to single
digits.

Thursday through Saturday...Warming temperatures and SW breezy
afternoons gusting 15-30 mph are expected Thursday and Friday.
Increasing moisture will result in higher RHs and shower and storms
chances starting Thursday. Winds become lighter for the weekend.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TM/RKR
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...TM

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff