821
FXUS65 KFGZ 231140
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
440 AM MST Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture will bring chances for afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms well into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High levels of moisture, steep lapse rates, and
orographic lift are helping keep persistent showers ongoing
across parts of Gila County into the White Mountains early this
morning. Expect this activity to gradually decrease and become
more isolated over the coming hours.

Today will feature another round of isolated to scattered
monsoonal storms. Compared to previous days, today`s activity will
be spread-out with no areas expected to have notably higher
concentrations than others. Limited shear and storm motion
combined with moderate instability and high PWATS means that
overall severe threat will once again be low today, but there is a
threat for flash flooding, especially under persistent cells or
areas where training develops.

The forecast the remainder of the period remains unchanged.
Monsoonal moisture input will allow for daily shower and
thunderstorm chances until Friday. By the end of the week, a
passing trough will shift high pressure over the region east and
cutting off moisture input. Thus conditions will become drier
going into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 23/12Z through Monday 24/12Z...Mainly VFR
expected. MVFR or lower in widespread SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z.
S-SW winds 5-10 kts becoming light and variable after 03Z. Erratic
and gusty winds in the vicinity of storms.

OUTLOOK...Monday 24/12Z through Wednesday 26/12Z...Mainly VFR
expected. Expect MVFR in SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z each day. S-SW
winds 5-10 kts each afternoon. Erratic and gusty winds in the
vicinity of storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Scattered to widespread afternoon
showers and thunderstorms expected through Monday. Wetting rains are
likely with any storms, as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds.
Outside of storms, expect southerly winds 10-15 mph, becoming more
westerly on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue through midweek, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim
and the White Mountains. Wetting rains are likely with any storms,
as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds. Southwest to west winds
around 10-15 mph each afternoon, increasing to 15-20 mph on
Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

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