163
FXUS65 KFGZ 221625
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
925 AM MST Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
over the weekend and into the middle of next week. Otherwise, muggy
and hot conditions will continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Arizona is essentially bisected by a rich plume of
sub-tropical moisture this morning, with drier conditions to the
west. The moisture plume is well populated with cloud cover and a
rain cooled boundary layer, it may be tricky to get much going under
this cloud cover until later today. It is where the cloud cover runs
out and the moisture is still present that may the focal area for
stronger storms today. This area can be roughly defined as Prescott
to Flagstaff to Happy Jack to Payson and the I-17 corridor that is
in between. This is the area that will maximize solar heating and
available moisture.

The previous shift manually added PoPs for this area and parts of
Yavapai County and this looks good. No imminent updates are needed
right now, we will watch convection development as the day wears on.

Daily storm chances will persist through the forecast period
thanks to the high setting up and bringing in monsoonal moisture.
Similar to today, limited shear will result in a more pulse storm
threat, though lingering, training thunderstorms will provide a
flash flood threat. Late next week PoPs due become very limited and
confined to the far east as a passing trough in the NW U.S. will
shift our high east. At this time, ensemble guidance does build the
high back in late in the weekend/early the following weekend. As
long as that happens, monsoonal flow will return and increase rain
chances once again.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 22/12Z through Sunday 23/12Z...Mainly VFR
expected. MVFR possible in SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z, mainly
along and south of KRQE-KFLG-KPRC line with ISO SHRA through
06Z/Sun. S-SW winds 5-15 kts becoming light and variable after
03Z. Erratic and gusty winds in the vicinity of storms.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/12Z through Tuesday 25/12Z...Mainly VFR
expected. Expect SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z each day. S-SW winds
5-15 kts each afternoon. Erratic and gusty winds in the vicinity
of storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Scattered to widespread showers
and thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Wetting rains are
likely with any storms, as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds
up to 45 mph. Outside of outflow winds, expect southerly winds at 10
to 215 mph today, becoming more southwest to west on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue through midweek, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim
and the White Mountains. A gradual warming trend will bring above
normal temperatures by Tuesday. Light southwest to west winds around
10 to 15 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson/RKR
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff