Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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714 FXUS65 KFGZ 172122 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 222 PM MST Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Critical fire weather conditions will persist into Monday evening. Temperatures will trend closer to normal through Wednesday, before warming again late in the week. A chance of thunderstorms arrives Thursday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Critical fire weather conditions are ongoing across northern Arizona this morning as a trough moves across the northwest U.S. Winds so far have been ranging between 25 and 55 mph and will continue to do so this afternoon. After today, the main low will move northeast but a trough will remain stalled over the western U.S., keeping breezy southwesterly winds (15-30 mph) each afternoon for Tuesday and Wednesday. Accompanying the system is cooler weather with Tuesday`s highs expected to be ~5 degrees below normal. Later this week into the weekend, confidence remains high that monsoonal moisture will start to increase as high pressure builds and shifts west. Confidence remains low in precipitation amounts and overall coverage for the weekend as the high shifts. Moisture overall looks limited and elevated so receiving any meaningful moisture will only be for a lucky few. Right now Friday looks to be the best day for coverage. In reality, these storms provide more of a wildfire risk as they could help contribute to new lightning started fires. As we head into the weekend and into next week, the high parks almost directly overhead, resulting in more suppression than actual moisture input...though shifts in placement would result in variations in precipitation so will continue to have to monitor over the coming days. && .AVIATION...Monday 17/18Z through Tuesday 18/18Z...VFR conditions persisting through the period. Winds S/SW 15-25 kts, gusting 30-40 kts, becoming W/SW 5-15 kts after 04Z. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 18/18Z through Thursday 20/18Z...VFR conditions continue through the period. Daytime winds SW 10-15 kts on Tuesday, becoming S for Wednesday/Thursday. Generally light and variable winds expected overnight. Isolated -SHRA/TS develops near the AZ/NM state ling Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Rest of Today through Wednesday...Strong winds gusting 25-45 mph will persist into the evening. This, coupled with teen to single digit RHs, is resulting in critical fire weather conditions. A RFW will remain in effect until 2000 MST tonight. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature lighter winds with afternoon gusts 15-25 mph out of the SW/S. Afternoon RHs will continue falling into the teens to single digits. Thursday through Saturday...Warming temperatures and SW breezy afternoons gusting 15-30 mph are expected Thursday and Friday. Increasing moisture will result in higher RHs and shower and storms chances starting Thursday. Winds become lighter for the weekend. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ104>107-109>116-139-140. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004- 006-007-009>016-039-040. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR AVIATION...RKR FIRE WEATHER...RKR For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff