710
FXUS65 KFGZ 221004
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
304 AM MST Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
over the weekend and into the middle of next week. Otherwise, muggy
and hot conditions will continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will be building into Arizona today.
Meanwhile, the remnants of Alberto will continue to track
westward. Together, this flow pattern will help ramp up moisture
availability for northern Arizona. Compared to past days, elevated
PWATS will shift from the Four Corners to more central Arizona/the
Mogollon Rim/White Mountains. Those locations will see the
greatest coverage in convection for this afternoon, but the
elevated moisture availability will allow overall greater spread
across the whole area. Out of the HREF members, the HRRR has had
run to run consistency putting thunderstorm activity later in the
day into Yavapai County, so POPs there were hand manipulated.
While the severe threat will persist today, lower shear will mean
a slightly lower chance. The flood threat remains the same
though, as a mix of slow moving and training thunderstorms are
expected and could cause isolated areas of flash flooding. The
shift in concentrated coverage from the Four Corners to the
Mogollon Rim will at least bring heavy rainfall to new areas that
have seen little to no precipitation in several weeks.

Daily storm chances will persist through the forecast period
thanks to the high setting up and bringing in monsoonal moisture.
Similar to today, limited shear will result in a more pulse storm
threat, though lingering, training thunderstorms will provide a
flash flood threat. Late next week POPs due become very limited
and confined to the far east as a passing trough in the NW U.S.
will shift our high east. At this time, ensemble guidance does
build the high back in late in the weekend/early the following
weekend. As long as that happens, monsoonal flow will return and
increase rain chances once again.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 22/06Z through Sunday 23/06Z...Mainly VFR
expected overnight, with local MVFR conditions in isolated to
scattered -TSRA, most numerous across NE AZ. Thunderstorms will
develop again after 17Z on Saturday, with scattered to numerous
storms along and south of a line from KGCN-KRQE. Expect MVFR
conditions and local IFR conditions in storms. Winds will be light
on Saturday, but gusty around thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/06Z through Tuesday 25/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected, with SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z each day, most
numerous over the higher terrain. S-SW winds 5-15 kts each
afternoon. Erratic and gusty winds in the vicinity of storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Scattered to widespread
afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend.
Wetting rains are likely with any storms, as well as gusty and
erratic outflow winds up to 45 mph. Outside of outflow winds, expect
southerly winds at 10-15 mph today, becoming more southwest to west
on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue through midweek, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim
and the White Mountains. A gradual warming trend will bring above
normal temperatures by Tuesday. Light southwest to west winds around
10-15 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff