237
FXUS65 KFGZ 111040
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
340 AM MST Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will strengthen over Arizona, leading to
hot temperatures across the region through the middle of the week.
By Friday, a low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures and
a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures rebound as we
dry out Saturday, followed by more seasonable temperatures heading
into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A cutoff low southwest of San Diego will remain in
place for a few days, allowing a narrow, high amplitude ridge to
develop along the AZ/NM border. This will bring a heat wave to our
area, starting today and peaking Wednesday and Thursday. Excessive
Heat Warnings have already been hoisted for our lower elevations and
this will remain in place.

The cutoff low will break loose at some point Thursday and will
eject ENE across the Lower Colorado River and northern Arizona
Thursday night into Friday. Southerly flow ahead of the low will
import some modestly higher dew points, which will combine with
limited mid-level moisture and cooling associated with the core of
the low. This will produce scattered, high-based convection
for Thursday night and Friday over our CWA.

The convection coupled with gusty winds (below any NPW/FWX criteria)
will also lead to elevated FWX concerns. However, relative humidity
values will be on the rise and some storms may actually contain
wetting rains. The bigger story is the heat for now, followed by
three days of breezy winds (Wed-Fri) and then the threat for
pockets of high-based convection.

Temperatures will cool in response to the low passage Friday, then
will rebound as we dry out Saturday, followed by a "cooler" zonal
pattern heading into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 11/06Z through Wednesday 12/06Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the TAF period. Winds generally 10 kts or
less, varying in direction.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 12/06Z through Friday 14/06Z...VFR conditions
are expected to persist. Daytime winds from the W-SW, 10-20 kts
with gusts 20-30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Dry conditions with hot
temperatures, along with afternoon RH values 5-15%. West/southwest
winds 10 mph or less, becoming southwest 10-15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Hot conditions remain on Thursday,
before cooling slightly. Breezy west/southwest winds with gusts of
20-30 mph possible each afternoon. Chance for isolated high-based
showers and thunderstorms late Thursday and Friday, especially along
and north of the Mogollon Rim. Dry conditions are otherwise expected.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Excessive Heat Warning below 4000 feet from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/
Wednesday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff