573
FXUS65 KFGZ 260542
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1042 PM MST Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over Arizona will continue the
unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions through the
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Updated short term for sky to increase clouds and to add
smoke from prescribed burns. Otherwise, light winds and mild to
above average temperatures will continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /543 PM MST/...Today and Thursday...A weak shortwave
moves northward through Arizona today, brining a return of
southerly flow. Moisture does increase some through the day, but
with high pressure still largely in control, the only noticeable
change will be some increase cloud cover over the higher terrain
this afternoon. Similar story again on Thursday, though just a
touch more moisture. Though this should largely be a nominal
increase as subsidence aloft will suppress any precipitation
chances.

Afternoon highs each day will be nearly 10 degrees F above normal
for this time of year. Winds should be fairly light each day with
occasional afternoon breezes. Some gusty northeast winds overnight
will remain possible, mainly in the usual areas immediately
downwind of southwest-facing terrain.

Friday through Tuesday...High pressure continue sot wobble around
the southwest, eventually centering over Arizona and becoming
amplified. As heights become maximized, afternoon highs sore to
nearly 15 degrees F above normal for Friday and into the weekend.
The lowest elevations of the region (mainly near Black Canyon City)
will be flirting with near 110 deg F both Friday and Saturday.

By the start of next week, the ridge axis becomes elongated across
the west. Temperatures begin to cool slightly as it becomes degraded
some, but still remain well above normal. Continued dry conditions
are also expected, with only a handful out of 100 ensemble members
between the EPS, GEFS, and CMCE showing any chance for precipitation
through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 26/06Z through Friday 27/06Z...VFR
conditions persist through the period with FEW cumulus clouds
over the high terrain. FU from area fires/burns may locally limit
visibility. Expect variable winds under 10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 27/06Z through Sunday 29/06Z...VFR conditions
continue through Saturday with variable cloud cover. Winds will
remain light, 5-15 kts, from the east to southwest each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...The dry and warm weather
pattern continues across Arizona this week. Expect near record,
daytime temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees above average each day with
afternoon humidity of 10 to 20%. Light winds, 5 to 15 mph, are
forecast throughout the period, mainly from the south or east.

Saturday through Monday...Dry conditions will continue through
Monday with afternoon humidity of 10 to 20% each day. High
temperatures remain significantly above average for this time of
year with cool temperatures at night. Light southwest winds return
for this weekend, becoming northeast on Monday. For any
prescribed burns, plan on poor smoke ventilation conditions after
7 pm MST each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff