Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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707 FXUS65 KFGZ 232059 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 159 PM MST Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm weather will continue across the region as high pressure builds. Light breezes are expected each day with clear sky conditions. Temperatures cool slightly by Sunday with breezy southwest winds. && .DISCUSSION...Tranquil weather is taking place across northern Arizona this afternoon as high pressure builds over much of the West. Most locations in northern Arizona are experiencing light northeast winds, 5-15 mph, with roughly 5 degree above average temperatures. Temperatures cool by nightfall as light easterly flow persists. Stronger northeast winds, 15-30 mph, are likely overnight for locations southwest of the Mogollon Rim and Bradshaw Mountains, including Sedona, the Verde Valley, and portions of I-17 from Munds Park to Black Canyon City. These winds should calm down just before sunrise Tuesday morning. The warming and drying trend persists for much of this week as high pressure dominates the Southwest. The most noticeable element for this week will be the daytime temperatures as 5-10 degree above average highs are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by 10-15 degree above average highs for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Afternoon temperatures for the latter half of the week will rival daily record highs for this time of year, especially in the High Country where widespread temperatures in the 80s are forecast. One last taste of summer for this year? Let`s hope this is it! One more day of easterly winds are forecast on Tuesday before they switch to the south on Wednesday. Nothing too strong, 10-20 mph during the daytime hours. Light and variable flow is forecast on Thursday and Friday underneath a high pressure ridge. Flow turns more southwesterly on Saturday with slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday as a shortwave trough looks to push through California. However, this will depend on the overall strength of the high over the Four Corners and potential trough positioning. One thing that is pretty much certain at this time is that no precipitation is anticipated anytime soon. && .AVIATION...Monday 23/18Z through Tuesday 24/18Z...Widespread VFR conditions with mostly clear skies continues through the period. Expect north to easterly winds, 5-15 kts, through 01Z becoming light and variable under 10 kts thereafter. Gustier northeast winds, 15-25 kts, are anticipated at KSEZ from 03Z-15Z. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 24/18Z through Thursday 26/18Z...VFR conditions persist with little to no cloud cover through Thursday. Plan on easterly winds, 5-15 kts, on Tuesday followed by southerly winds, 10-20 kts, for Wednesday and Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...The drying and warming trend continues with widespread humidity of 15 to 20% each afternoon and daytime temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average. Expect east- northeast winds, 10 to 15 mph, on Tuesday followed by southerly winds, 10 to 20 mph, on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday...High pressure remains over northern Arizona through Saturday resulting in daytime temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees above average and near critically dry conditions. Winds will be variable, 10 to 15 mph, on Thursday and Friday, becoming southwest on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...LaGuardia AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff