Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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541 FXUS65 KFGZ 230428 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 928 PM MST Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...An early development to the 2024 Monsoon season will bring chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms well into next week. && .DISCUSSION...On Sunday, expect another active Monsoon day across northern Arizona as flow around an elongated area of high pressure centered over New Mexico continues to pump moisture into the region. Low CAPE values between 100-600 J/kg and minimal shear means the threat of severe weather is low. However, precipitable water between 1.0 to 1.5 inches and storm motion of only 5 knots means the potential for flash flooding due to heavy rainfall from slow moving storms is high. The bulk of the high resolution model guidance suggests the greatest storm activity will occur across the Coconino and Yavapai Counties. Through much of next week, deep monsoon moisture is forecast to remain in place resulting in daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Longer range models suggest storm activity may decline from Friday into next weekend as moisture is scored out due to the influence of a passing long-wave trough. && .AVIATION...Sunday 23/00Z through Monday 24/00Z...Outside of shower and thunderstorm activity, expect mainly VFR. Through 03Z, SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA producing MVFR conditions and erratic/gusty winds. More storms are expected after 18Z Sunday. OUTLOOK...Monday 24/00Z through Wednesday 26/00Z...Outside of shower and thunderstorm activity, expect mainly VFR. Then from 19Z- 03Z each day, SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA producing MVFR conditions and erratic/gusty winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...A low to medium grade Monsoon pattern each day, with average temperatures and light winds outside of storms. These storms are not dry and wetting rain is likely with almost any convective development. Tuesday through Thursday...A low to medium grade Monsoon pattern each day, with average temperatures and light southwesterly winds outside of storms. These storms are not dry and wetting rain is likely with almost any convective development. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RR/Peterson AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff