013
FXUS65 KFGZ 212034
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
134 PM MST Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system crossing through Arizona will
bring cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and chances for showers and
thunderstorms through this afternoon. Warmer and drier weather is
expected to return for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
redeveloped this afternoon in the core of the upper low nearing
northeastern Arizona. The remaining instability is positioned
north of the Mogollon Rim and this is where storms will continue
through the afternoon hours. Storm motion is northwest to
southeast. As is expected with convection, rainfall amounts have
been variable and generally less than 0.50". An isolated strong
storm could produce hail and strong winds, but the better
environmental wind shear lies closest to the New Mexico border.
Showers will come to an end this evening when drier air filters in
as the low pushes further east into New Mexico and Colorado.
Temperatures will be cool tonight, but dew point remain elevated
enough to keep temps from dropping too cold. A few outlying high
mountain valley will likely hit freezing but elsewhere looks to
stay above.

A dry and quiet weather pattern is in store beginning tomorrow and
lasting through the upcoming week. Strong Pacific high pressure
will build over the west, bringing a much warmer period of
weather with light winds. The strength and amplification of the
ridge looks to keep any shortwave activity much further east than
previously forecast, which will continue the warm and dry pattern
for us. Expect temperatures to climb back above normal through
the week, perhaps nearing 80 degrees in the mountains and upper
90s in the lowest valleys by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 21/18Z through Sunday 22/18Z...Scattered
-SHRA/-TSRA with localized/brief MVFR conditions spreading
 eastward through the day. Precipitation chances will come to an
 end area wide by around 00Z. West to northwest winds 10-20 kts
 this afternoon turning light overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 22/18Z through Tuesday 24/18Z...Dry weather and
VFR conditions are forecast. Variable winds mostly 10 kts or less
for Sunday through Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Look for warm and dry
conditions both days. Expect northerly winds at 5 to 15 mph on
Sunday becoming light and variable at less the 10 mph for Monday.
Afternoon RH values ranging from 15 to 25 percent.

Tuesday through Thursday...Warm days and dry conditions will
continue. Northerly winds at 10-20 mph are expected to develop on
Tuesday and Wednesday becoming light and variable on Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff