939
FXUS65 KFGZ 182113
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
213 PM MST Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Slightly below normal temperatures and breezy conditions
continue for the rest of this week. A passing weather system will
bring a chance of showers late Friday through early Saturday,
mainly north of I-40. A benign and warmer weather pattern develops
for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Northern Arizona remains between low pressure
systems today. An overall mild and breezy day is underway.
Southwest winds are gusting up to about 20 to 25 mph. Similar
weather conditions are in store through Friday as the next closed
low slowly drops southward along the California coast, and then
heads east toward Arizona. Breezy southwest winds will continue
each afternoon and temperatures will remain about 5 to 7 degrees
below normal.

The closed low is forecast to track over the Lower Colorado River
by Friday evening, and then slowly lift northeast across Arizona.
There is not a great moisture fetch with this system, but enough
residual moisture combined with some synoptic scale lift will
yield isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. The
best precipitation potential will remain north of I-40, but
precipitation chances have increased and spread as far south as
Prescott and Payson by late Friday night. The trough axis quickly
moves east of Arizona by midday Saturday with a dry northwesterly
flow taking hold.

The remainder of the forecast period looks to be dominated by a
strong ridge building over the western states. Rising heights will
lead to warmer temperatures and a period of dry and calm weather
at least through the middle of next week, and perhaps longer.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 18/18Z through Thursday 19/18Z...Widespread
VFR conditions persist through the period with mostly clear skies.
Expect south to southwest winds, 10-25 kts, this afternoon
becoming variable under 10 kts after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 19/18Z through Saturday 21/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are anticipated through Saturday. Mostly clear sky
conditions are forecast for Thursday into Friday, becoming SCT low
to mid-level clouds for Friday night into Saturday. BKN cloud
cover along with slight chances for -SHRA are forecast on Friday
along and northwest of a P23-KFLG-KPGA line. Conditions improve on
Saturday. Expect southwest winds, 15-25 kts, each afternoon,
shifting to the northwest on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...The dry conditions continue on
Thursday with seasonable temperatures and afternoon southwest
breezes, 15 to 25 mph. Winds relax some after sunset, predominantly
from the southeast, with moderate to good humidity recoveries
overnight. Chances for showers are forecast for western portions of
Coconino and Yavapai counties later on Friday with southerly winds,
15 to 30 mph.

Saturday through Monday...Cooler temperatures with breezy, 10 to 20
mph, northwest winds are expected on Saturday. West to north winds
are forecast on Sunday and Monday as a warming and drying trend
develops.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff