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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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496 FXUS65 KFGZ 291633 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 933 AM MST Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and storms are expected today, with better coverage in southern Navajo and Apache counties. Coverage will increase and push back westward Sunday into next week as temperatures remain warm. Drier, hot weather expected by the end of next work week. && .UPDATE...Forecast still on track with discussion below from the overnight shift - in bringing PoPs back westward and not drying out as much as we thought yesterday. Made another minor adjustment to PoPs in the Prescott to Williams area to increase them to around 20% to get them mentioned in the forecasts. Otherwise, extensive cloud cover in southern Navajo and Apache counties (and likely some sprinkles) will hinder daytime heating for the next couple hours at least. This is where our highest PoPs are later this afternoon, this still looks OK but it may be after 2-3 PM before we get better storm coverage in those areas. && .PREV DISCUSSION /432 AM MST/...Overall trended back up some with POPs for today. Watching convective activity that took place in southern Arizona/south of the border, taking into account the activity from Friday, observing dewpoints increasing in southern Arizona, and the upward trend in CAMs, it was concluded that coverage will not be confined in far eastern AZ as previously thought. CAMs have isolated activity as far west as Flagstaff this afternoon. Thus POPs were manually manipulated to try and bring them back further west. Coverage is still going to be pretty isolated besides in far eastern Arizona and over the Whites though. Just a few lucky individuals further west will get in on measurable rainfall...though ample instability with some lingering shear with a trough still passing through will bring a slightly elevated severe threat, including hail and strong down burst/outflow winds. After today, the forecast remains mostly unchanged: the departing trough and westward pushing high will allow for monsoonal moisture to start ramping back up over the region, pushing scattered shower and storm chances to move back west Sunday into the start of next work week. This will persist through at least the middle of the coming work week. By Thursday (4th of July), a strong high is still expected to slide east over the west coast and setting up shop over the Great Basin. This will set up a drier period with temperatures increasing. Ensemble guidance continues to keep moisture pooled south of the Rim under northerly flow, so rain chances are not totally gone for the entire region at the moment...will have to continue to track. As of now, the heat looks to be the biggest risk that will need to be monitored, especially with the 4th of July holiday coinciding and the weekend after. Overnight recoveries especially for the lower elevations will be most noteworthy as the lingering moisture would result in trapped heat persisting overnight. && .AVIATION...Saturday 29/12Z through Sunday 30/12Z...Outside of storm activity, mainly VFR conditions. From 19Z-02Z, SCT SHRA/TSRA mainly SE of a KPRC-KFLG-KRQE line, thunderstorms may produce brief MVFR conditions. AWay from thunderstorms or outflows, daytime SW winds 10-20kts. OUTLOOK...Sunday 30/12Z through Tuesday 02/12Z...Outside of storm activity, mainly VFR conditions. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase in frequency and coverage. From 19Z-02Z each day, SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA, thunderstorms may produce brief MVFR conditions. AWay from thunderstorms or outflows, daytime S-SW winds 5-15kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Moisture has retreated southeastward over the last 24-48 hours, but it has not completely dried out. Expected isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, mainly southeast of a Prescott to Flagstaff to Window Rock line. Shower and thunderstorm activity starts pushing back north and west Sunday. The northern zones, especially northwestern, will remain the driest. Away from thunderstorms, expect daytime southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum RH values stay above 15 percent through the period. Monday through Wednesday...Daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity continue. Generally light winds, away from thunderstorms. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ/RKR AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff