Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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566 FXUS65 KFGZ 150539 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1039 PM MST Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A brief warming trend will take place between today and tomorrow, along with isolated showers/thunderstorms near NE AZ this afternoon/evening. A dry, long-wave trough will bring cooler temperatures and gusty winds Sunday through the beginning of next week. Warm and calmer conditions look to return by mid to late week. && .UPDATE...Clear skies and light winds will be the story for tonight across the High Country as a weak ridge starts to push into the area. Areas around Cordes Lakes may see some smoke settle in through the night due to a nearby wildfire. The smoke may continue to linger until the inversion breaks and the winds start to pick up in the morning. Forecast looks to be on track and only minor adjustments to the grids were needed this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION /435 PM MST/...A quick moving disturbance brought isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, primarily in central/northern Apache/Navajo Counties. Hi- res guidance continues to indicate convective activity towards the Four Corners through 5 PM MST this evening. A brief warm- up will take place on Saturday, as a weak ridge settles over the region, prior to a long-wave trough pushing down from the Pacific Northwest. This low-pressure system will bring gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and mostly dry conditions starting Sunday. Wind gusts are shaping up to be 30-40 mph Sunday and Monday afternoon, but peak wind gusts will be on Monday. Currently, Sunday looks to hold widespread, single-digit relative humidity values that slightly climb to low-mid teens on Monday. With the drier pattern and strong winds, near-critical to critical fire weather concerns are possible both days. No products have been issued at this time, but stayed tuned for updates. Wednesday Onward...The previously mentioned trough will gradually weaken through the end of the week and a subtropical high will begin to build up over our area. As a result, temperatures will increase through the end of the week and winds will become lighter. Look for daytime highs 2-10 degree above normal Thursday and Friday. It looks like enough moisture will funnel in across eastern Arizona toward the end of next week, bringing our precipitation chances between 10-20% for our AZ/NM border. There is still time to hash out all those details, so check back later. && .AVIATION...Saturday 15/06Z through Sunday 16/06Z...VFR through the period. Generally light winds through the night with southwest winds developing after 16Z and increasing through around 20Z...with gust to near 25kts in the afternoon. Winds decreasing after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Sunday 16/06Z through Tuesday 18/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Daytime winds S-SW10-20g25-30kts each day and light winds at night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Hot and dry. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph on Saturday, increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts from 30 to 35 mph on Sunday. Pockets of near-critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday afternoon over the central/northwestern zones. Some weak northerly flow may persist Saturday morning over southern Apache County. Monday through Wednesday...Dry, temperatures cooling to around or just under seasonal normals. Windy for Monday and Tuesday, with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts from 30 to 40 mph. Areas of near-critical fire weather conditions possible Monday afternoon. Winds decrease by Wednesday, becoming west through southwest at 10 && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola/Konieczny AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff